ICBC(601398) 中国银河·2024-11-04 02:18Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [4]. Core Views - The company's performance shows signs of recovery with both revenue and net profit growth returning to positive territory in Q3 2024. For the first nine months of 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 626.42 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 3.82%, while net profit attributable to shareholders reached 269.03 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.13% year-on-year. The annualized average ROE stands at 9.77%, down 0.79 percentage points year-on-year. In Q3 2024, revenue and net profit grew by 1.05% and 3.82% year-on-year, respectively, indicating a positive trend [1][2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first nine months of 2024, the company reported a net interest income of 476.73 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.94%. In Q3 2024, the decline narrowed to 1.07% year-on-year, benefiting from optimized funding costs. The annualized net interest margin for the first nine months of 2024 is 1.43%, consistent with the first half of 2024. Total loans increased by 7.7% compared to the end of the previous year, with corporate loans being the main growth driver, rising by 8.43% [1][2]. Non-Interest Income - Non-interest income for the first nine months of 2024 was 149.69 billion yuan, a slight year-on-year decline of 0.03%. The decline in intermediary business income was 8.98%, while other non-interest income grew by 17.53% year-on-year, primarily driven by significant increases in fair value changes [2][3]. Asset Quality and Capital Adequacy - As of September 2024, the non-performing loan ratio was 1.35%, down 1 basis point from the end of the previous year. The provision coverage ratio increased to 220.3%, up 6.33 percentage points year-on-year, indicating improved asset quality and risk resilience. The core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio stood at 13.95%, up 23 basis points from the end of the previous year, reflecting a strong capital position compared to peers [2][3]. Investment Outlook - The company is one of the major state-owned banks with leading scale and market share, demonstrating strong operational resilience. The report emphasizes steady credit expansion and structural transformation, with ongoing reforms enhancing high-quality development capabilities. The stable dividend yield suggests sustainable long-term shareholder returns. The projected BVPS for 2024-2026 is 10.31 yuan, 11.08 yuan, and 11.87 yuan, corresponding to current PB ratios of 0.60X, 0.56X, and 0.52X, respectively [3][4].