NHD(002946)2024-11-04 02:30Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's main business shows steady growth, with product structure optimization leading to an increase in gross margin [4] - The company is focusing on high-end products under the "fresh" strategy, enhancing profitability through regional deepening and increased penetration [3][6] - The company's Q3 2024 performance met expectations, with a slight decline in revenue but a significant increase in net profit [3] Financial Performance Summary - For Q1-Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of 8.15 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5%, while net profit attributable to the parent company was 474 million yuan, an increase of 24.4% [3] - In Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of 2.785 billion yuan, down 3.8% year-on-year, but net profit rose by 22.9% to 177 million yuan [3] - The company maintains profit forecasts for 2024-2026, expecting net profits of 550 million, 650 million, and 770 million yuan, with corresponding EPS of 0.64, 0.75, and 0.89 yuan [3] Business Segment Performance - Q3 revenue decline was primarily due to the sale of "One Yogurt Cow" at the end of 2023, but the main business continues to grow steadily [4] - Low-temperature fresh milk and yogurt categories showed double-digit growth, while ambient products experienced slight declines [4] - The East China region performed well with double-digit growth, while the Western region faced challenges due to the consumption environment and product structure [4] Profitability Analysis - The net profit margin increased by 1.38 percentage points to 6.36% in Q3 2024, mainly due to a 2.40 percentage point increase in gross margin [5] - The improvement in gross margin is attributed to structural optimization and declining raw milk prices [5] - The company expects continued support for gross margin improvement in Q4 due to ongoing declines in raw milk prices and structural enhancements [5] Strategic Outlook - The company aims to cultivate strategic categories centered on low-temperature fresh milk and specialty yogurt, focusing on internal growth potential [6] - Emphasis on new product development and promotion, with a target for new product revenue to exceed double digits [6] - The DTC channel is seen as a key growth engine, with plans to expand into emerging channels like snack retail [6]