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中国核电:业绩符合预期,在建核电机组保障稳定增长

Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Nuclear Power (601985.SH) is "Buy" (maintained) [3] Core Views - The company's performance in Q3 2024 met expectations, with a revenue of 19.545 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 1.25%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.052 billion yuan, down 7.1% year-on-year [3] - The decline in nuclear power generation was primarily due to unexpected maintenance at the Fuqing Nuclear Power Plant, while renewable energy generation saw a significant increase of 48.2% year-on-year [3] - The company has completed 80.5% of its renewable energy installation plan, with a total installed capacity of 24.15 million kilowatts as of September 2024 [3] - The company has 18 nuclear power units under construction or planned, ensuring stable long-term growth in installed capacity [3] - The company emphasizes shareholder returns, announcing a three-year dividend plan and a special dividend proposal [3] Financial Summary - For 2024-2026, the forecasted net profit attributable to shareholders is 10.97 billion, 11.53 billion, and 11.97 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 3.2%, 5.2%, and 3.8% respectively [3] - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 17, 17, and 16 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 [3] - The projected dividend yield for 2024-2026 is 2.0%, 2.1%, and 2.1% respectively, based on a historical dividend payout ratio of 35% [3][4]