CGS(601881) 长江证券·2024-11-04 02:45Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7]. Core Insights - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company demonstrated stable operations with revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders both maintaining growth. The brokerage business revenue declined with market pullback, while the bond underwriting market share significantly increased, and investment income showed a notable recovery [3][4][6]. - The company is expected to benefit from policies favoring strong firms and mergers and acquisitions, with investment banking and asset management businesses likely to continue gaining momentum under new management and strategy [6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 27.09 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.96 billion yuan, up 5.5%. The weighted average return on equity (ROE) decreased by 0.9 percentage points to 5.8% [3][4]. - In Q3 alone, the company reported operating revenue and net profit of 10.0 billion yuan and 2.58 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting year-on-year increases of 23.9% and 54.8% [4]. - Revenue from various business lines in the first three quarters included brokerage (3.69 billion yuan, -12.1%), investment banking (370 million yuan, +11.0%), asset management (350 million yuan, +2.1%), interest income (2.63 billion yuan, -20.9%), and proprietary trading (8.74 billion yuan, +49.9%). Notably, proprietary trading income in Q3 surged by 226.1% to 3.82 billion yuan, driving overall performance improvement [4][5]. Market Position - The brokerage business revenue declined in line with market trends, with average daily trading volumes in the first three quarters and Q3 down by 10.6% and 15.1%, respectively. The company's market share in lending funds remained stable at 5.73%, with a slight year-on-year increase [5]. - The bond underwriting market share improved significantly, with the company achieving a bond underwriting scale of 344.88 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.4%, resulting in a market share of 3.4%, up 0.8 percentage points [5]. Future Outlook - The company’s financial asset scale reached 397.1 billion yuan by the end of Q3, reflecting a 13.1% increase since the beginning of the year. The static proprietary investment return rate improved to 3.7%, up 0.87 percentage points year-on-year [6]. - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 10.5 billion yuan and 12.21 billion yuan for 2024 and 2025, representing year-on-year growth of 33.3% and 16.3%, respectively, with corresponding price-to-book ratios of 1.32 and 1.14 [6].