Gemdale(600383) 长江证券·2024-11-04 02:46Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook despite current challenges [2] Core Views - The company's revenue and profitability have declined significantly, with a 21 6% drop in revenue to 41 billion yuan and a net loss of 3 41 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024 [2] - The company's gross margin fell by 4 4 percentage points to 12 5%, driven by reduced development business settlements and increased asset impairment losses [2] - Sales performance has been weak, with a 56 7% year-on-year decline in sales volume to 52 81 billion yuan, though the company remains in the top tier of the industry [3] - The company has adopted a cautious investment strategy, disposing of assets in cities like Xi'an and Shaoxing to improve liquidity, and has not acquired new projects in 2024 [3] Financial Performance - The company's pre-sale revenue stood at 57 57 billion yuan, down 38 3% year-on-year, indicating continued pressure on future settlement income [2] - The company's unsold land reserves decreased by 26 4% to 35 89 million square meters, with a 44 6% equity ratio, reflecting a decline in marketable inventory [3] - New construction starts and completions were significantly reduced, with new starts down 68 3% to 709,000 square meters and completions down 6 2% to 6 44 million square meters [3] Future Outlook - The company is expected to face continued challenges due to weak market demand and industry-wide credit tightening, but its operational efficiency and brand strength remain competitive [4] - The report forecasts a net loss of 5 07 billion yuan for 2024, with a return to profitability in 2025 and 2026, with net profits of 450 million yuan and 750 million yuan respectively [4] - The company's PE ratio is projected to be 59X in 2025 and 35X in 2026, based on current stock prices [4]