NEW HOPE(000876) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2024-11-04 03:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The report indicates a recovery in pig farming profits and stable operations in the feed business [2] - The company reported a revenue of 77.21 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 27.67%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 153 million yuan, an increase of 103.97% year-on-year [2] - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in pig supply, although pig prices are under pressure, leading to a downward revision of profit forecasts for 2024-2026 [2] Financial Summary - For Q1-Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 772.09 billion yuan, down 27.67% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.53 billion yuan, up 103.97% year-on-year [2] - The Q3 revenue was 276.32 billion yuan, down 25.91% year-on-year, with a net profit of 13.71 billion yuan, up 256.68% year-on-year [2] - The company's debt-to-asset ratio as of September 2024 was 70.85%, a decrease of 1.91 percentage points year-on-year [2] Pig Farming Operations - The company reported a pig output of 12.42 million heads for Q1-Q3 2024, a decrease of 4.91%, with a revenue of 20.22 billion yuan, down 0.68% [3] - In Q3 2024, the pig output was 3.732 million heads, down 8.25%, with a revenue of 7.17 billion yuan, an increase of 8.19% [3] - The company aims to achieve a pig output of over 15 million heads in 2024, with operational costs expected to decrease to below 14 yuan per kilogram by year-end [3] Feed Business Performance - The feed business generated a net profit of 380 million yuan for Q1-Q3 2024, with total feed sales of 19.13 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 12% [4] - In Q3 2024, feed sales volume increased quarter-on-quarter, with external sales reaching 5.65 million tons [4] - The report highlights improvements in poultry and aquaculture feed operations, while pig feed sales and profit per ton are under pressure [4]