Songcheng Performance(300144) 光大证券·2024-11-04 03:16Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [3]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 20.13 billion yuan and a net profit of 10.08 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 24.5% and 28.0% respectively. However, Q3 2024 saw a decline in revenue and net profit by 4.7% and 5.5% year-on-year [1]. - The performance of nurturing projects was strong, with notable achievements in various locations, while existing projects showed mixed results due to high base effects from the previous year and other external factors [1][2]. - The company anticipates a recovery in revenue for existing projects in Q4 2024, as the year-on-year comparison becomes more favorable [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company's gross margin was 75.6%, down 2.1 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to negative effects from revenue scale. The net profit margin for Q3 was 54.7%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The company expects to leverage its "performance + scenic area" advantage to enhance growth in existing projects and continue the upward trajectory of nurturing projects [2]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecasts for 2024-2026 have been revised downwards to 10.78 billion yuan, 12.63 billion yuan, and 14.14 billion yuan, representing reductions of 2.5%, 8.1%, and 8.3% respectively. The current stock price corresponds to an EPS of 0.41, 0.48, and 0.54 yuan for 2024-2026, with P/E ratios of 23, 20, and 17 times [3].