Shijiazhuang Shangtai Technology (SZ:001301) Guotai Junan Securities·2024-11-04 03:42Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company, setting a target price of 79.54 CNY based on a 3.31x PB valuation for 2024 [3][15]. Core Insights - The company has accelerated its development in the anode business, increasing its market share and leveraging an integrated layout to create product and cost advantages. Deep collaboration with high-quality downstream customers has driven sustained demand growth, opening up performance growth potential for the company [2][12]. Financial Forecast - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 789 million CNY, 1.003 billion CNY, and 1.215 billion CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 9.1%, 27.1%, and 21.1%. Corresponding EPS for the same years is projected to be 3.02 CNY, 3.84 CNY, and 4.66 CNY [3][13]. Industry Position - The company has been deeply involved in the graphitization industry for over a decade and has transformed into a supplier of artificial graphite anode materials since 2017. It has established a supply chain with leading battery manufacturers such as CATL, ATL, and Guoxuan High-Tech, enhancing its market position [3][12][15]. Market Dynamics - The demand for anode materials is expected to grow alongside electric vehicle and energy storage needs. In the first three quarters of 2024, China's anode material shipment reached 1.49 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 24%. The top eight companies accounted for 81% of the market share, indicating a high industry concentration [3][12]. Integrated Production Advantages - The company's integrated production model allows it to control the entire process from crushing, granulation, graphitization, to carbonization, which enhances product quality and reduces costs. The market share of the company increased from 9% in 2023 to 10% in the first three quarters of 2024, reflecting a strong growth momentum [3][12][21]. Financial Performance - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 5.509 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 25.5%. The revenue for 2025 and 2026 is expected to reach 7.183 billion CNY and 9.340 billion CNY, respectively, with growth rates of 30.4% and 30.0% [3][13][14].