Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 operating trends are in line with expectations, with both new and existing stores contributing to growth [2] - The company is accelerating its scale layout in provincial capitals, with both organic growth and acquisitions driving expansion [2] - The company is enhancing patient service experience through multiple initiatives, including strategic partnerships and the establishment of a self-pay business system [3] - The company's "online + offline" business model is expected to further enhance revenue and profitability as the number of stores increases [3] - The company's core growth drivers include increased doctor resources and patient flow, with accelerated store expansion supporting future high growth [3] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - Revenue is expected to grow from RMB 1,627 million in 2022 to RMB 5,206 million in 2026, with a CAGR of 33.8% [1] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to increase from RMB 183.29 million in 2022 to RMB 631.32 million in 2026, with a CAGR of 36.2% [1] - Non-GAAP net profit is projected to rise from RMB 200.81 million in 2022 to RMB 705.00 million in 2026, with a CAGR of 36.9% [1] - EPS is expected to grow from RMB 0.75 in 2022 to RMB 2.59 in 2026 [1] - The P/E ratio based on the latest diluted EPS is forecasted to decrease from 44.53 in 2022 to 12.93 in 2026 [1] Operational Highlights - In Q3 2024, the total number of visits reached approximately 1.485 million, a year-on-year increase of 25.0% [2] - New stores (including self-built and acquired) contributed 6.5% of the 25.0% growth rate, with approximately 77,000 visits [2] - The company has opened 74 offline TCM clinics in 20 cities (including Singapore), highlighting its chain, scale, and brand advantages [2] - The company is actively expanding into overseas markets, planning to establish an international headquarters in Singapore and cultivate international talents through the "Gusheng Shiqi TCM Master Class" [2] Strategic Initiatives - The company has entered into a strategic partnership with Meituan Healthcare, with over 70 TCM institutions and 30,000 TCM doctors joining the platform to provide appointment booking and online consultation services [3] - The company is gradually building a self-pay business system to meet diversified medical needs, aiming for sustainable growth [3] - The company's business model is expected to further leverage the advantages of "online + offline" integration, enhancing revenue and profitability [3] Financial Ratios and Metrics - The company's P/B ratio is 3.85, with a market capitalization of HKD 8,919.73 million [4] - The company's net asset per share is RMB 9.51, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 31.33% [5] - The company's ROIC and ROE are expected to increase from 12.60% and 10.94% in 2023 to 17.34% and 16.88% in 2026, respectively [12] - The company's gross margin is forecasted to remain stable at around 30%, with a net profit margin increasing from 10.86% in 2023 to 12.13% in 2026 [12] Historical Performance and Future Outlook - The company's revenue grew by 43.05% year-on-year in 2023, with net profit attributable to the parent company increasing by 37.59% [1] - The company's revenue is expected to grow by 32.05% in 2024, with net profit attributable to the parent company increasing by 26.47% [1] - The company's revenue growth is projected to remain strong, with a CAGR of 29.72% from 2024 to 2026 [1]
固生堂：事件点评：三季度经营趋势符合预期，新店+老店齐发力