GUJING(000596) 西南证券·2024-11-04 04:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Gujing Gongjiu (000596) [1] Core Views - The company achieved revenue of 19.07 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 19.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.75 billion yuan, up 24.5% year-on-year. The Q3 revenue was 5.26 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 13.4%, and a net profit of 1.17 billion yuan, up 13.6% year-on-year, aligning with market expectations [1][2] - Despite a relatively weak external consumption environment, the company managed to maintain double-digit growth in Q3 2024, showcasing strong resilience in growth amid increased market competition [3] - The company is focusing on its mid-to-high-end strategy and national expansion, aiming to deepen its market presence in its home province while ensuring stable pricing for its products [2][3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the gross margin decreased by 1.6 percentage points to 77.9%, primarily due to an increase in the proportion of lower-priced products. The sales expense ratio significantly decreased by 5.3 percentage points to 23.0%, while the overall expense ratio fell by 5.0 percentage points to 29.0%. The net profit margin slightly increased by 0.2 percentage points to 23.1% [2] - The company reported cash flow from sales of 5.46 billion yuan in Q3, a year-on-year increase of 24.6%, with contract liabilities at 1.94 billion yuan, down 41.6% year-on-year [2] Growth Strategy - The company is leveraging the upcoming festive seasons to boost sales through innovative marketing strategies and consumer engagement activities. It aims to stabilize channel profits through various promotional activities [2] - The company is committed to its strategy of national expansion and focusing on mid-to-high-end products, which is expected to enhance its competitive advantage and sustain growth [3] Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 are projected to be 10.73 yuan, 12.49 yuan, and 14.41 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 18x, 15x, and 13x. The company is expected to continue benefiting from its strategic initiatives, maintaining a "Buy" rating [3][4]