新希望：Q3业绩改善明显，成本持续下降

Investment Rating - The investment rating for New Hope (000876) is "Accumulate" [2] Core Views - The company reported a significant improvement in Q3 performance, with a total revenue of 77.209 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 27.67%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 153 million yuan, marking a turnaround from losses [3] - The main profit contribution comes from pig farming, with a notable increase in pig prices and improved breeding efficiency leading to better performance in Q3 [4] - The company is expected to continue its recovery, with projected EPS for 2024-2026 at 0.26, 0.73, and 0.58 yuan respectively, maintaining the "Accumulate" rating [4] Financial Summary - The latest closing price is 9.77 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 459 billion yuan and a circulating market capitalization of 456 billion yuan [2] - The company’s total revenue for 2023 is projected at 141.703 billion yuan, with a decline of 15.64% expected in 2024, followed by a recovery in subsequent years [5] - The EBITDA for 2024 is estimated at 4.456 billion yuan, with a significant increase in net profit attributable to shareholders projected for 2024 at 1.161 billion yuan [5] - The company’s debt-to-asset ratio has improved to 70.85% as of Q3, down from 72.3% [4]