BTG Hotels(600258) Changjiang Securities·2024-11-04 07:22Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6][8]. Core Views - In the short term, the demand for business travel is expected to continue recovering due to the active implementation of national policies, with a RevPAR of 254 yuan during the National Day holiday period, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.5% [6][8]. - In the long term, there is significant room for expansion in the mid-to-high-end hotel market in lower-tier cities, supported by a solid base of existing stores and ongoing product upgrades like Home NEO, which are expected to enhance brand image [6][8]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 5.889 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.37%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 723 million yuan, an increase of 5.63% [4]. - In Q3 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 2.156 billion yuan, down 6.38% year-on-year, and a net profit of 366 million yuan, down 9.54% year-on-year [4][5]. - The company opened 385 new stores in Q3 2024, with a net increase of 273 stores, focusing on quality alongside scale, as the proportion of mid-to-high-end stores increased to 29.1% [4][5]. Operational Insights - The average daily rate (ADR) and RevPAR faced pressure in Q3 2024, with the overall hotel RevPAR at 170 yuan, down 7.8% year-on-year, and ADR at 244 yuan, down 5.5% year-on-year [5]. - The company’s gross margin decreased to 43.09%, while the net margin was 16.91%, reflecting a slight decline due to increased new store openings [5]. Future Outlook - The company expects steady growth in the hotel industry as the economy recovers and franchisee investment intentions improve, with projected net profits for 2024-2026 of 856 million, 972 million, and 1.098 billion yuan, respectively [6][8].