HEILAN HOME(600398) 国海证券·2024-11-04 07:25Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][5]. Core Insights - The company's Q3 performance has been under pressure, with a significant decline in offline operations, while the integration of the brand "Sboz" has led to substantial revenue growth from other brands [3][5]. - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported a revenue of 15.259 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.99%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.908 billion yuan, down 22.19% [3]. - The online sales channel has shown strong growth, with a revenue increase of 44.67%, while offline sales decreased by 11.82% [3][5]. - The company is expected to face short-term operational challenges due to the overall consumption environment, but long-term prospects remain positive as it continues to strengthen its core competitiveness and improve profit margins [5]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 3.889 billion yuan, down 11.01% year-on-year, and a net profit of 271 million yuan, down 64.88% [3]. - The revenue breakdown by brand for the first three quarters shows: Haian Home 11.3 billion yuan (-4.95%), Haian Group Purchase Custom 1.462 billion yuan (-13.55%), and other brands (including Sboz) 1.759 billion yuan (+19.59%) [3]. - The company’s gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 44.59%, a slight decrease of 0.18 percentage points compared to the same period last year [4]. - The company’s operating cash flow for the first three quarters was 27 million yuan, a significant decline of 98.9% year-on-year [4]. Future Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 21.39 billion yuan, 23.36 billion yuan, and 25.37 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -1%, +9%, and +9% [5]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 2.34 billion yuan, 2.77 billion yuan, and 3.09 billion yuan for the same years, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 21% in 2024, followed by growth of 18% and 12% in the subsequent years [5].