华新水泥：静待国内涨价弹性落地

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [4]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 24.719 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.29%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.138 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 39.26% [4][5]. - The demand in the industry remains a core constraint, with a 22.2% year-on-year decline in new housing starts and a 10.7% decrease in national cement production in the first three quarters of 2024 [4][5]. - The company is expected to face downward pressure on profitability in Q3 2024, with a potential loss of over 10 yuan per ton in net profit [5][6]. - The overseas market is stable, with ongoing projects in multiple countries expected to provide growth opportunities [6]. - Anticipation for Q4 2024 domestic market elasticity due to recent price increases in the Hubei market [6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 8.482 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.78%, and a net profit of 408 million, a year-on-year decrease of 40.17% [4][5]. - The company’s cement production in key markets like Hubei, Hunan, and Yunnan saw declines of 7%, 13%, and 8.3% respectively in the first three quarters [4][5]. Market Dynamics - The company’s core markets are experiencing stable pricing, while the aggregate market is facing potential price declines due to increased competition and capacity [5][6]. - The company has a significant presence in the aggregate market, with a production capacity of 280 million tons as of H1 2024, nearing its target of 300 million tons [5]. Future Outlook - The company expects to see more project implementations in overseas markets, which could enhance growth [6]. - The anticipated price increases in the domestic market during the traditional peak season of Q4 2024 may provide some profitability elasticity [6]. Earnings Forecast - The projected earnings for 2024 and 2025 are 1.9 billion and 2.4 billion respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 17 and 13 [6].