天润乳业：2024年三季报点评：经营有望企稳，利润环比扭亏为盈

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tianrun Dairy [6] Core Views - Tianrun Dairy's Q3 2024 performance shows a recovery in profitability, with a significant increase in net profit compared to the previous quarter [1][3] - The company is facing challenges in its ambient product category, while its market outside Xinjiang remains relatively stable [2] - The decline in raw milk costs has improved gross margins, and the reversal of some impairment provisions has positively impacted Q3 profits [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, Tianrun Dairy achieved revenue of 2.156 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.50%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 84.37% to 22 million yuan [1] - In Q3 2024 alone, revenue reached 713 million yuan, up 2.73% year-on-year, with net profit soaring by 200.51% to 50 million yuan [1] Product Categories - Q3 2024 revenue breakdown shows ambient dairy products at 372 million yuan (down 4.66%), chilled dairy products at 281 million yuan (up 4.84%), and livestock products at 17 million yuan (down 40.63%) [2] - The company continues to expand its product lineup, launching several new products [2] Market Performance - Revenue from Xinjiang and outside Xinjiang in Q3 2024 was 325 million yuan (down 10.45%) and 347 million yuan (up 6.77%), respectively, indicating pressure in the Xinjiang market but stability elsewhere [2] - The number of distributors in Xinjiang remained stable at 387, while those outside decreased by 20 [2] Cost and Margin Analysis - Gross margins improved to 19.87% in Q3 2024, up 2.25 percentage points year-on-year, due to lower raw milk procurement costs [3] - Selling expenses increased to 6.40% of revenue in Q3 2024, reflecting higher brand promotion efforts [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecasts for 2024-2026 have been revised down to 71 million, 160 million, and 238 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS estimates of 0.22, 0.50, and 0.74 yuan [4] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 42x for 2024, 18x for 2025, and 12x for 2026 [4]