NHD(002946)2024-11-04 08:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 8.15 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a slight decrease of 0.54% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 24.37% to 474 million yuan [1][4] - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 2.785 billion yuan, down 3.82% year-on-year, but the net profit attributable to shareholders rose by 22.92% to 177 million yuan [1][4] - The company plans to distribute a mid-term dividend of 0.035 yuan per share, which represents 10.16% of the net profit for the first half of the year [1] Revenue Performance - The low-temperature product category achieved double-digit growth in Q3 2024, driven by new product development and expansion of direct-to-consumer channels [2] - The East China subsidiary reported double-digit growth in Q3, while the Western region faced revenue pressure due to the overall consumption environment [2] - The company’s subsidiary, Weipin, continued to see double-digit growth in revenue, with accelerated performance in Q3 compared to the first half of the year [2] Profitability Analysis - The gross profit margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 29.09%, an increase of 1.67 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to lower milk prices and product structure optimization [3] - The net profit margin for the same period was 5.81%, up 1.16 percentage points year-on-year [3] - In Q3 2024, the gross profit margin was 28.83%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.40 percentage points [3] Financial Forecast - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 541 million yuan, 654 million yuan, and 770 million yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with growth rates of 25.59%, 20.94%, and 17.66% [4] - The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios (P/E) for these years are projected to be 20, 16, and 14 times, respectively [4]