山外山：2024年三季报点评：进口取代持续加速，长期发展值得期待

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company Shanwaishan (688410.SH) [3][12]. Core Views - The company is experiencing short-term performance pressure due to high base comparisons from the previous year, increased R&D investments, and stock incentive expenses. However, the long-term development prospects remain promising, particularly with the acceleration of domestic substitution in the medical equipment sector [3][4]. - The company continues to hold a leading position in the blood purification equipment market, with a market share of 10.35% in blood dialysis equipment and 18.18% in CRRT equipment among domestic brands [3][4]. - The consumables business is benefiting from centralized procurement, which is expected to sustain rapid growth. The company is expanding its product line and enhancing its service model, which integrates equipment, medical staff, patients, and dialysis centers [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported a revenue of 418 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 27.39%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 62 million yuan, down 65.89% year-on-year [3][4]. - The company’s sales expense ratio increased to 21.99%, up 6.69 percentage points year-on-year, while the R&D expense ratio rose to 9.80%, an increase of 5.40 percentage points [3][4]. Market Position - The company maintains a strong market position in blood purification equipment, with expectations for continued growth driven by domestic substitution trends [3][4]. - The company has established six blood dialysis chain service centers, laying a solid foundation for its long-term strategic development [3][4]. Profit Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 569 million yuan, 733 million yuan, and 930 million yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively. Corresponding net profits are expected to be 108 million yuan, 149 million yuan, and 198 million yuan [3][4].