YILI(SH:600887) Guoyuan Securities·2024-11-04 08:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 89.039 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a decrease of 8.59% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 15.87% to 10.868 billion yuan [2] - The third quarter of 2024 saw total revenue of 29.125 billion yuan, down 6.67% year-on-year, with a net profit of 3.337 billion yuan, up 8.53% [2] - The decline in liquid milk revenue was primarily due to channel adjustments, but the revenue drop has narrowed in Q3 [3] - The company’s gross profit margin improved to 34.85% in Q3 2024, up 2.48 percentage points year-on-year, driven by lower milk prices [4] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, revenue from liquid milk, milk powder and dairy products, cold drinks, and other products was 57.524 billion, 21.330 billion, 8.344 billion, and 0.591 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of -12.09%, +7.07%, -19.64%, and +25.35% [3] - The company’s net profit for 2024 is projected to be 11.989 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14.96% [5] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to be 20.71% in 2024, indicating strong profitability [9] Regional Performance - Revenue from different regions for the first three quarters of 2024 showed a decline in North China, South China, Central China, and East China, with year-on-year changes of -6.28%, -8.21%, -12.78%, and -11.16% respectively [3] Investment Recommendations - The report forecasts net profits of 11.989 billion, 11.072 billion, and 12.024 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 15, 16, and 15 times [4][5]