周大生：黄金饰品终端动销偏弱影响业绩表现，持续优化产品结构

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][2][7]. Core Views - The company's performance in the first three quarters of 2024 shows a revenue of 10.809 billion RMB and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 855 million RMB, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 13.49% and 21.95% respectively. The third quarter alone saw revenues of 2.612 billion RMB and a net profit of 253 million RMB, with year-on-year declines of 40.91% and 28.7% [1]. - The decline in revenue and profit is attributed to high gold price volatility, which has dampened consumer sentiment towards gold jewelry, leading to decreased replenishment enthusiasm among downstream customers. Despite this, the company has increased its focus on product research and development, resulting in a gross margin improvement of 9.7 percentage points year-on-year in Q3 [1][2]. - The company has seen a slight increase in self-operated and franchise revenue, with e-commerce revenue growing by 5.94% year-on-year to 1.653 billion RMB, while offline self-operated revenue increased by 9.77% to 1.354 billion RMB. However, franchise revenue faced pressure, declining by 19.75% to 7.66 billion RMB [2]. - The company plans to continue expanding its brand matrix and IP products to drive growth, although it has lowered its profit forecast for 2024-2026, expecting net profits of 1.097 billion RMB, 1.274 billion RMB, and 1.417 billion RMB respectively, which corresponds to a year-on-year change of -16.6%, +16.1%, and +11.2% [2]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Performance - Q1-Q3 2024 revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company are 10.809 billion RMB and 855 million RMB, down 13.49% and 21.95% year-on-year [1]. - Q3 alone shows revenue of 2.612 billion RMB and net profit of 253 million RMB, with declines of 40.91% and 28.7% year-on-year [1]. Market Conditions - The retail sales of gold products are expected to weaken gradually throughout 2024, with Q1 showing a year-on-year increase of 4.5%, while Q2 and Q3 are projected to decline by 4% and 7.7% respectively [1]. - The average closing price of Au9999 on the Shanghai Gold Exchange increased by 16%, 23%, and 24% year-on-year for Q1, Q2, and Q3 respectively [1]. Product Segmentation - Revenue from plain gold and embedded products in Q1-Q3 2024 is 8.896 billion RMB and 585 million RMB, down 15.04% and 22.46% year-on-year [2]. - The company added a net of 129 stores in Q1-Q3 2024, bringing the total to 5,235 stores, with 4,886 being franchise stores [2]. Future Outlook - The company has adjusted its profit forecast for 2024-2026, now expecting net profits of 1.097 billion RMB, 1.274 billion RMB, and 1.417 billion RMB, with corresponding PE ratios of 11, 9.5, and 8.5 [2].