国联证券2024三季报点评：业绩符合预期，自营投资收益率回升

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Guolian Securities is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance is in line with expectations, with a rebound in proprietary investment returns. The annualized weighted average ROE for Q1-Q3 2024 is 2.9%, down 2.7 percentage points year-on-year. The end-period leverage ratio (excluding client margin) is 4.8 times, an increase of 0.5 times from the beginning of the year. The brokerage and asset management businesses have shown year-on-year growth, while proprietary investment returns have improved. The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 has been raised to 0.81 billion, 1.23 billion, and 1.61 billion yuan, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 21%, 52%, and 31% [3][5]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q1-Q3 2024, the company's operating income and net profit attributable to shareholders are 2.0 billion and 0.4 billion yuan, respectively, down 20% and 46% year-on-year. The net profit for Q3 alone is 0.31 billion yuan, up 1% year-on-year and 144% quarter-on-quarter [3][4]. - The brokerage business net income for Q1-Q3 2024 is 0.4 billion yuan, up 2% year-on-year, while Q3 net income is 0.12 billion yuan, down 8% year-on-year and 31% quarter-on-quarter. The investment banking business net income is 0.26 billion yuan, down 38% year-on-year, and the asset management business net income is 0.48 billion yuan, up 65% year-on-year [4]. - The company's investment income (including fair value changes) for Q1-Q3 2024 is 0.93 billion yuan, down 18% year-on-year, with an annualized proprietary investment return rate of 2.6%, an increase from 1.6% in H1 2024. The end-period proprietary investment financial asset scale is 51 billion yuan, up 4% year-on-year [5]. Valuation Metrics - The current stock price corresponds to PB ratios of 1.9, 1.8, and 1.7 times for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively. The EPS for 2024-2026 is projected to be 0.3, 0.4, and 0.6 yuan, respectively [3][5].