迎驾贡酒2024年三季报点评：顺势降速，继续坚持结构升级

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][7]. Core Views - The company reported total revenue of 5.513 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 13.81%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.006 billion yuan, up 20.19% year-on-year [2]. - In Q3 2024, total revenue was 1.711 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 2.32%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 625 million yuan, an increase of 2.86% year-on-year [2]. - The company continues to see growth in mid-to-high-end liquor sales, with revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor reaching 4.246 billion yuan for the first three quarters, up 18.63% year-on-year [2]. - The report highlights a structural upgrade leading to a continuous improvement in gross margin, with a gross margin of 74.28% for the first three quarters, an increase of 2.65 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Financial Summary - The company expects net profits attributable to the parent company to be 2.679 billion yuan, 3.081 billion yuan, and 3.558 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with growth rates of 17.12%, 14.99%, and 15.49% [2][3]. - The projected P/E ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 18, 16, and 14 times, respectively, based on a market capitalization of 48.6 billion yuan [2][3]. - The company’s revenue is forecasted to reach 7.527 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 12.01% [3]. Sales Channels - Direct sales (including group purchases) and wholesale agency channels reported revenues of 359 million yuan and 4.893 billion yuan for the first three quarters, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 5.57% and 15.90% [2]. - The number of domestic distributors increased to 782, while the number of external distributors slightly optimized to 640 by the end of Q3 2024 [2]. Regional Performance - The company achieved revenue of 3.802 billion yuan from domestic sales and 1.449 billion yuan from external sales in the first three quarters, with year-on-year growth of 20.70% and 2.69%, respectively [2].