伊利股份：调整结束收入压力缓解，单季度利润增长超预期

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of 35.87 CNY, representing a potential upside of 26.7% from the current stock price of 28.30 CNY [5]. Core Insights - The company has shown significant improvement in its quarterly performance, with a notable increase in net profit exceeding expectations [2]. - The revenue pressure has eased following the completion of channel adjustments, leading to a more favorable outlook for future performance [3]. - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 120.1 billion CNY in 2024, 114.2 billion CNY in 2025, and 124.8 billion CNY in 2026 [5]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2022, the company reported revenues of 123.17 billion CNY, with a projected decline to 119.46 billion CNY in 2024, followed by a recovery to 124.75 billion CNY in 2025 and 129.94 billion CNY in 2026 [1][7]. - Net profit for 2022 was 9.43 billion CNY, with projections of 12.01 billion CNY in 2024, 11.42 billion CNY in 2025, and 12.48 billion CNY in 2026 [1][7]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to grow from 1.48 CNY in 2022 to 1.89 CNY in 2024, with a slight dip to 1.79 CNY in 2025 before rising to 1.96 CNY in 2026 [1][7]. Operational Performance - The company's gross margin improved to 34.9% in the first three quarters of 2024, up by 2.5 percentage points year-on-year [4]. - The sales expense ratio increased, but overall sales expenses were well-controlled despite the challenging environment [4]. - The company has successfully completed channel adjustments, leading to a healthier inventory level and positioning for improved demand in the future [3]. Market Position - The company maintains a strong position in the liquid milk and dairy product market, with specific segments like infant formula showing double-digit growth [3]. - The report highlights the company's ability to navigate through competitive pressures and economic challenges, indicating resilience in its operational strategy [5].