Hualan Vac(SZ:301207) Zhongyuan Securities·2024-11-04 09:15Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Cautious Accumulate" investment rating for the company [4][11]. Core Views - The company, established in 2005 and listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in 2022, specializes in the research, production, and sales of human vaccines, with a primary revenue source from influenza vaccines [2]. - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported a revenue of 957 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 44.28%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 267 million yuan, down 57.54% year-on-year [3]. - The decline in performance is attributed to a high base from the previous year due to an outbreak of H1N1 influenza, alongside reduced sales and price cuts for influenza vaccines [3]. - The company's gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 81.05%, a decrease of 7.36 percentage points compared to the same period last year [3]. - The report forecasts earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 0.88 yuan, 1.09 yuan, and 1.19 yuan respectively, with corresponding dynamic price-to-earnings ratios of 21.18, 17.08, and 15.73 [4][5]. Financial Summary - The company achieved a revenue of 1,826 million yuan in 2022, which increased to 2,410 million yuan in 2023, but is expected to decline to 2,049 million yuan in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of -15% [5]. - The net profit for 2022 was 520 million yuan, which rose to 860 million yuan in 2023, but is projected to drop to 530 million yuan in 2024, indicating a year-on-year decrease of 38.39% [5]. - The company's total assets are projected to grow from 7,076 million yuan in 2022 to 9,812 million yuan by 2026 [6]. - The cash flow from operating activities is expected to increase from 289 million yuan in 2022 to 1,013 million yuan in 2026 [7]. Market Performance - The company's stock closed at 18.67 yuan, with a market capitalization of 2.645 billion yuan [1]. - The stock has experienced a significant decline relative to the CSI 300 index, with a performance drop of 46% from November 2023 to November 2024 [4].