周大生：2024年三季报点评：需求暂受高位金价抑制，静待回暖

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company with a target price of 13.1 CNY per share, while the current price is 11.15 CNY [1]. Core Views - The company experienced a revenue decline of 13.49% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2024, with total revenue reaching 10.809 billion CNY. The net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 21.95% to 855 million CNY. In Q3 alone, revenue fell by 40.91% year-on-year to 2.612 billion CNY, and net profit dropped by 28.70% to 253 million CNY [1]. - High gold prices have suppressed demand, leading to a cautious consumer sentiment. The jewelry market saw a year-on-year decline of 3.1% in the first nine months of 2024, with significant drops in consumer spending observed from May to September [1]. - The company continues to expand its offline store presence, opening 474 new stores in the first three quarters, which includes 421 franchise stores and 53 self-operated stores. As of the end of September, the total number of stores reached 5,235 [1]. - The gross profit margin improved to 27.5% in Q3, an increase of 9.7 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin attributable to shareholders rose to 9.7%, up by 1.7 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - Long-term growth potential is anticipated as the company optimizes product categories, enhances product design, and expands distribution channels, despite the current macroeconomic challenges and high gold prices affecting demand [1]. Financial Summary - For 2023, total revenue is projected at 16.29 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 46.5%. However, a decline of 11.1% is expected in 2024, with revenue forecasted at 14.486 billion CNY. The net profit for 2023 is estimated at 1.316 billion CNY, with a decrease of 15.9% anticipated in 2024 [2]. - The company has a total market capitalization of 12.22 billion CNY and a circulating market value of 12.04 billion CNY. The asset-liability ratio stands at 24.91% [3].