JUNEYAOAIR(603885) ZHONGTAI SECURITIES·2024-11-04 09:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative performance increase of over 15% compared to the benchmark index within the next 6 to 12 months [6]. Core Views - The company experienced a year-on-year decline in performance due to increased volume but decreased prices, with Q3 net profit dropping by 27.21% compared to the same period last year [1][3]. - The company’s overall and domestic available seat kilometers (ASK) increased by 18% and 4% respectively in the first three quarters of 2024, indicating a recovery in supply and demand [2]. - The report projects a downward adjustment in the company's net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 due to a more relaxed industry supply and overall price decline, with expected net profits of 11.31 billion, 18.87 billion, and 25.26 billion respectively [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.271 billion yuan, a 10.12% increase year-on-year, while the net profit for Q3 alone was 782 million yuan, a decrease of 27.21% year-on-year [1]. - The company’s revenue for 2023 is projected to be 20.096 billion yuan, with a growth forecast of 11.3% for 2024 [5]. Operational Metrics - The fleet size increased by 7 aircraft to a total of 124 by the end of September 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 5.98% [2]. - The passenger load factor for the company was 84.94%, showing a 2.20 percentage point improvement compared to the same period last year [2]. Profitability and Valuation - The report forecasts earnings per share (EPS) to be 0.34 yuan for 2023, increasing to 0.51 yuan in 2024, and further to 0.85 yuan in 2025 [5]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to be 24.7x for 2024, decreasing to 14.8x in 2025 and 11.1x in 2026, indicating a potential improvement in valuation as earnings grow [3][5].