周大生：高金价抑制终端需求，拓店节奏有所放缓

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 13.44 CNY based on a 14x PE valuation for 2024 [2][6][3]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 10.81 billion CNY for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decline of 13.5%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 855 million CNY, down 21.95% year-on-year. In Q3 2024, revenue and net profit decreased by 40.9% and 28.7% respectively [1][6]. - High gold prices have suppressed end-user demand, leading to a significant decline in franchise channel performance. In Q3 2024, e-commerce revenue grew by 14%, while franchise and self-operated channels saw declines of 51.6% and 3.6% respectively [1][6]. - The pace of store expansion has slowed, with a net increase of -1 franchise and 6 self-operated stores in Q3 2024, compared to 94 and 7 in Q2 2024 [1][6]. - The company's gross margin increased by 9.7 percentage points to 27.5% in Q3 2024, attributed mainly to product mix adjustments. However, selling, administrative, and R&D expense ratios increased, with selling expenses rising significantly due to higher salaries, rent, advertising, and e-commerce costs [1][6]. - Inventory turnover days increased to 124 days in Q3 2024, up 32 days year-on-year, while operating cash flow improved to 21 million CNY from a negative 825 million CNY in the same period last year [1][6]. Financial Forecasts - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are adjusted to 0.96 CNY, 1.16 CNY, and 1.33 CNY respectively, down from previous estimates of 1.15 CNY, 1.32 CNY, and 1.44 CNY [2][6]. - The projected revenue for 2024 is 14.36 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 11.9%, followed by growth of 9.2% in 2025 and 9.7% in 2026 [2][6].