MANGO(300413) 东方证券·2024-11-04 10:10Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 32.56 CNY based on a 37x PE for 2024 [2][4]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 3.317 billion CNY in Q3 2024, showing a year-over-year decline of 1.5% and a quarter-over-quarter decline of 8.73%. The gross margin for Q3 was 29.8%, an increase of 7.3 percentage points year-over-year and 0.7 percentage points quarter-over-quarter. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 379 million CNY, down 27.41% year-over-year and 35.76% quarter-over-quarter, primarily due to an increase in income tax expenses [1][2]. - In the first half of 2024, new media operations generated 4.96 billion CNY in revenue, a decrease of 3.6% year-over-year, with a gross margin of 36.1%, down 6.6 percentage points year-over-year. Membership revenue for the same period was 2.486 billion CNY, reflecting a growth of 27% year-over-year. The effective membership count exceeded 70 million as of October 11, 2024 [1][2]. - The company has seen a significant increase in active users, with 268 million monthly active users in August 2024, ranking among the top three in the long video industry. The contribution of series to membership revenue is also increasing, with effective plays of member content rising to 79%, a 16% year-over-year increase [1][2]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue for 2022 was 13.704 billion CNY, with a projected revenue of 14.456 billion CNY for 2024, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 1.2%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 1.652 billion CNY in 2024, down 53.5% from 2023 [3][8]. - The gross margin is projected to decrease to 27.0% in 2024, while the net margin is expected to be 11.4%. The return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to be 7.4% in 2024 [3][8].