Zhuzhou Kibing (601636) 国泰君安·2024-11-04 10:10Investment Rating - Maintains an "Overweight" rating [4] - Target price adjusted to 7.72 yuan, up from the previous 6.74 yuan [6] Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 results met expectations, with both float and photovoltaic glass sectors facing price pressures [3] - Despite industry challenges, the company maintains leading cost competitiveness and is expected to stabilize as industry cold repairs accelerate [3] - Q3 2024 revenue was 3.689 billion yuan, down 14.21% year-on-year, with a net loss of 112 million yuan [4] - Photovoltaic glass sector accelerated losses due to insufficient component demand, but cold repairs in 2025 are expected to drive profit recovery [4] - Float glass segment achieved break-even in Q3, with sales of approximately 27 million heavy cases and a production-sales ratio exceeding 100% [4] - Photovoltaic glass sales in Q3 were around 100 million square meters, with prices dropping to 13.82 yuan per square meter, leading to industry-wide losses [4] Financial Performance - 2024E revenue is projected at 16.405 billion yuan, with a net profit of 572 million yuan [5] - EPS for 2024E is forecasted at 0.21 yuan, down from 0.65 yuan in 2023A [5] - ROE for 2024E is expected to be 4.1%, down from 12.9% in 2023A [5] - P/E ratio for 2024E is 33.12, significantly higher than 10.82 in 2023A [5] Industry and Market Context - The float glass industry is under pressure, with the national average price in Q3 at 1,470 yuan per ton, down 305 yuan per ton from the previous quarter [4] - The photovoltaic glass industry saw a price drop of 3.54 yuan per square meter in Q3, leading to rapid inventory accumulation and accelerated price declines [4] - The company's governance structure and incentive mechanisms remain strong, with a management team capable of navigating industry cycles [4] - The float glass industry's daily melting capacity decreased by 13,200 tons per day from its peak in April, a reduction of 8% [4] Valuation and Comparables - The company's 2025E P/E ratio is 17.71, compared to an industry average of 19.31 [13] - Comparable companies include Fuyao Glass (600660.SH) with a 2025E P/E of 16.70 and Flat Glass (601865.SH) with a 2025E P/E of 25.46 [13]