东鹏饮料：第一曲线势能强劲，第二曲线加速成长

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 performance exceeded expectations, with revenue reaching 12.558 billion yuan, a 45.34% YoY increase, and net profit attributable to shareholders reaching 2.707 billion yuan, a 63.53% YoY increase [5] - The company's core product, Dongpeng Special Drink, continued to grow strongly, with Q3 revenue reaching 3.652 billion yuan, a 27.73% YoY increase [6] - The company's second growth curve, represented by the "Bushui La" product, accelerated, with Q3 revenue reaching 735 million yuan, a 299.58% YoY increase [6] - The company's national expansion strategy is progressing well, with Guangdong region revenue growing 30.47% YoY and national region revenue growing 51.78% YoY [6] - The company's profitability improved significantly in Q3, with gross margin reaching 45.81%, a 4.29% YoY increase, and net margin reaching 20.85%, a 3.64% YoY increase [7] Financial Forecasts - The company's revenue is expected to grow to 16.081 billion yuan in 2024, 20.394 billion yuan in 2025, and 25.106 billion yuan in 2026, representing YoY growth rates of 42.78%, 26.82%, and 23.10% respectively [7] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to grow to 3.214 billion yuan in 2024, 4.196 billion yuan in 2025, and 5.252 billion yuan in 2026, representing YoY growth rates of 57.57%, 30.56%, and 25.17% respectively [7] - EPS is expected to grow to 6.18 yuan in 2024, 8.07 yuan in 2025, and 10.10 yuan in 2026 [4] - The company's P/E ratio is expected to decline to 34.60 in 2024, 26.50 in 2025, and 21.17 in 2026 [4] Operational Highlights - The company's sales channels are diversified, with distributor, direct sales, and online channels growing 43.65%, 53.54%, and 140.33% YoY respectively in Q3 [6] - The company's cost optimization and scale effects have contributed to improved profitability, with gross margin increasing due to lower costs of raw materials such as white sugar [7] - The company has increased advertising and freezer placements to enhance channel and brand building, leading to a slight increase in sales expense ratio [7]