Proya(SH:603605) Caixin Securities·2024-11-04 10:41Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1][7][11] Core Views - The company has demonstrated significant revenue growth, with a 32.72% increase in revenue to 69.66 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, and a 33.95% increase in net profit to 999 million yuan [5][7] - The company maintains a strong market position as a leading domestic beauty brand, with expectations for continued growth driven by promotional events and a diversified product portfolio [7][8] Financial Summary - Revenue and Profit Forecasts: - 2024E revenue is projected at 110.65 billion yuan, with net profit expected to reach 15.16 billion yuan [5][9] - EPS is forecasted to be 3.82 yuan in 2024, increasing to 5.56 yuan by 2026 [5][9] - Valuation Metrics: - The P/E ratio is expected to decrease from 31.99 in 2023 to 25.20 in 2024, and further to 17.35 by 2026 [5][9] - The P/B ratio is projected to decline from 8.89 in 2023 to 7.21 in 2024, reaching 4.79 by 2026 [5][9] Operational Analysis - Revenue Breakdown: - Skincare products accounted for 84.27% of revenue in Q3 2024, with a 20.68% increase in revenue to 16.54 billion yuan [6] - Hair care products saw a 47.19% increase in revenue, while color cosmetics experienced an 18.71% increase [6] - Profitability: - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 70.07%, with a net margin of 14.68% [6] - Q3 2024 gross margin was 70.71%, indicating stable profitability despite slight declines year-on-year [6] Market Position - The company has maintained its leading position in the beauty market, ranking first in multiple categories during major promotional events such as Double Eleven [7][8] - The management team has completed adjustments, enhancing operational resilience and channel capabilities, which supports future growth prospects [7]