KELUN PHARMA(002422) 国盛证券·2024-11-04 11:11Investment Rating - Maintain "Buy" rating [1][3] Core Views - Kelun Pharmaceutical achieved revenue of 16.789 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 6.64%, with net profit attributable to the parent company of 2.471 billion yuan, up 25.85% year-on-year [1] - In Q3 2024, revenue was 4.962 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.35% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to the parent company grew by 19.88% to 671 million yuan [1] - The company's innovation transformation is entering a harvest period, with four innovative products from Kelun-Biotech having submitted NDA applications, and potential for commercialization domestically [1] - Kelun's long-term investment logic remains strong, with upgrades in the large infusion industry, structural adjustments, and improved profitability [1] Financial Performance - Q1-3 2024 sales expense ratio decreased by 5.07 percentage points year-on-year to 15.57%, while R&D expense ratio dropped by 1.14 percentage points to 9.44% [1] - Q3 2024 sales expense ratio was 14.03%, down 7.33 percentage points year-on-year, and R&D expense ratio was 10.20%, down 1.58 percentage points [1] - Gross profit margin for Q1-3 2024 was 52.51%, a slight decrease of 0.43 percentage points year-on-year [1] - Net cash flow from operating activities for Q1-3 2024 was 3.275 billion yuan, down 22.97% year-on-year [1] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Forecasted net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024-2026 is 2.94 billion yuan, 3.23 billion yuan, and 3.83 billion yuan, with growth rates of 19.5%, 10.0%, and 18.7% respectively [1] - EPS for 2024-2026 is expected to be 1.83 yuan, 2.02 yuan, and 2.39 yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 18X, 16X, and 14X [1] Industry and Market Performance - Kelun Pharmaceutical operates in the chemical pharmaceutical industry [3] - The company's stock price has shown strong performance relative to the CSI 300 index [4] Financial Projections - Revenue for 2024E is projected to be 24.114 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 12.4% year-on-year [2] - Net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024E is expected to be 2.936 billion yuan, up 19.5% year-on-year [2] - ROE for 2024E is forecasted at 11.3%, with a P/E ratio of 17.8X [2]