CHJ(002345) 东方证券·2024-11-04 11:12Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 5.39 RMB [2][3][7] Core Views - The company's 24Q3 revenue was 48.59 billion RMB, up 8.01% YoY, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.16 billion RMB, up 0.95% YoY However, 24Q3 revenue and net profit declined by 4.36% and 17.21% YoY respectively [1] - The company outperformed the industry in terms of revenue growth Despite a 10.4%, 12%, and 7.8% YoY decline in gold and jewelry retail sales in July, August, and September respectively, the company's sales were less impacted due to its younger product positioning and better differentiation [1] - The company's gross margin in 24Q3 decreased by 2.3 percentage points YoY, likely due to changes in product and channel structure Sales, management, and R&D expense ratios decreased by 0.3, 0.2, and 0 percentage points respectively, while the net profit margin dropped by 0.9 percentage points to 6.1% [1] - The company is actively expanding its overseas business, with its first overseas store opening in Malaysia's IOI City Mall in August, showing strong sales momentum and enhancing its international presence [1] - The company's differentiated brand and product positioning, catering to younger consumers, and its relatively small sales base provide ample room for future growth, supporting a positive outlook for its medium to long-term prospects [1] Financial Forecasts - The report adjusts the company's EPS forecasts for 2024-2026 to 0.38, 0.49, and 0.56 RMB respectively, down from previous estimates of 0.48, 0.59, and 0.70 RMB [2][7] - Revenue is expected to grow by 5.9%, 11.8%, and 10.1% in 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, reaching 6.248 billion, 6.987 billion, and 7.693 billion RMB [5] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to grow by 1.0%, 28.9%, and 15.3% in 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, reaching 337 million, 434 million, and 500 million RMB [5] - The company's gross margin is expected to decline slightly from 26.1% in 2023 to 23.6%, 23.3%, and 23.4% in 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, while the net margin is expected to improve from 5.7% in 2023 to 6.2% and 6.5% in 2025 and 2026 [5] Industry Comparison - The company's valuation is based on a 2025 PE multiple of 11x, in line with peers such as Chow Tai Fook (10x), Chow Sang Sang (9x), and China Gold (12x) [8] - The adjusted average PE multiple for comparable companies is 12x for 2024, 11x for 2025, and 10x for 2026 [8]