LI AUTO(02015) 东吴证券·2024-11-04 11:45Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Li Auto Inc. (02015.HK) [1] Core Insights - Li Auto's Q3 2024 performance met expectations, with total revenue reaching RMB 42.87 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 67.67% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 23.6% [2][3] - The vehicle sales revenue was RMB 41.32 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 173.48% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 35.3% [2] - The net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders for Q3 was RMB 2.81 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 155.1% [2] - The overall gross margin for Q3 was 21.5%, with a notable performance in the automotive sales gross margin at 20.9% [3] - The report highlights a significant improvement in operational efficiency, with a reduction in R&D and SG&A expenses as a percentage of revenue [3] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - Q3 2024 total revenue was RMB 42.87 billion, with vehicle sales contributing RMB 41.32 billion [2] - Q3 net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 2.81 billion, with a Non-GAAP net profit of RMB 3.85 billion [2] - The company delivered 153,000 vehicles in Q3, a year-on-year increase of 45.4% [3] Margin Analysis - The overall gross margin was 21.5%, with automotive sales gross margin at 20.9% [3] - The report attributes the strong margin performance to controlled discounts and significant scale effects from increased sales volume [3] Expense Management - R&D expenses for Q3 were RMB 2.6 billion, and SG&A expenses were RMB 3.4 billion, showing improvements in expense ratios [3] - The report notes a strategic approach to managing expenses, including a slight reduction in R&D costs due to decreased design and development expenses [3] Future Earnings Forecast - The earnings forecast for 2024 has been adjusted upwards to RMB 7.8 billion, while estimates for 2025 and 2026 have been revised downwards to RMB 10.3 billion and RMB 15.3 billion, respectively [4] - The report anticipates a P/E ratio of 24 for 2024, 18 for 2025, and 12 for 2026 [4]