Linglong Tyre(601966) Southwest Securities·2024-11-04 13:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Linglong Tire (601966) with a current price of 19.31 CNY [1]. Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2024, with revenue reaching 15.949 billion CNY, up 9.77% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 1.712 billion CNY, up 78.39% year-on-year [2]. - The production and sales of tires showed steady growth, although rising raw material prices increased procurement costs [3]. - The company's gross margin improved due to tax refunds and cost reduction efforts, with a gross margin of 24.35% for the first three quarters, up 4.65 percentage points year-on-year [4]. - The "7+5" strategy is being effectively implemented, with the Serbian factory rapidly increasing production capacity, which is expected to enhance profitability as it meets the demands of major automotive manufacturers [5]. - Earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2024-2026 are projected at 1.51, 1.73, and 1.95 CNY, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 27.0% for net profit attributable to shareholders over three years [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of 5.569 billion CNY, with a year-on-year increase of 5.22% and a net profit of 786 million CNY, up 97.30% year-on-year [2]. - The tire production volume was 22.33 million units, up 8.36% year-on-year, and sales volume was 21.43 million units, up 10.68% year-on-year [3]. Cost and Margin Analysis - The average tire price in Q3 was 257.28 CNY, reflecting a decrease of 4.32% year-on-year due to market structure changes [3]. - The comprehensive procurement cost of key raw materials increased by 1.87% quarter-on-quarter and 15.40% year-on-year, but the raw material price index showed a decrease of 7.53% from the average in Q3 [3]. Strategic Initiatives - The Serbian factory is positioned as the company's second overseas production base, with plans for significant annual production capacity [5]. - The factory has passed audits from major automotive manufacturers and is ramping up production, which is expected to leverage tariff and transportation advantages in Europe [5]. Earnings Forecast - The report projects a steady increase in revenue, with expected figures of 20.165 billion CNY in 2024, 22.908 billion CNY in 2025, and 26.958 billion CNY in 2026, reflecting growth rates of 13.60%, 17.68%, and 6.88% respectively [6].