基础化工 行业周报（20250714-0720） 同步大市-A(维持) 政策将助推化工供给侧优化，雅鲁藏布江下游水电工程开工 2025 年 7 月 23 日 行业研究/行业周报 资料来源：最闻 首选股票 评级 600309.SH 万华化学 买入-B 600426.SH 华鲁恒升 买入-B 600160.SH 巨化股份 买入-B 600378.SH 昊华科技 买入-B "新一轮十大重点行业稳增长工作方案"即将出台，产能结构优化加速， 建议关注化工行业周期复苏与供给侧优化赛道。工信部总工程师谢少锋在 7 月 18 日国新办新闻发布会上表示，钢铁、有色金属、石化、建材等十大重点 行业稳增长工作方案即将出台，工业和信息化部将推动重点行业着力调结构、 优供给、淘汰落后产能。我们认为供给侧优化需聚焦"成本绝对优势"或"技 术绝对稀缺"的龙头企业。建议关注：MDI 和 TDI 龙头万华化学，技术壁垒 与全产业链优势驱动高端材料国产替代，穿越周期成长；低成本煤化工龙头 华鲁恒升，成本控制极致化与高端新材料转型；三代制冷剂全球龙头巨化股 份，配额锁定供给，需求回暖带动高景气；高端氟材料龙头昊华科技，氟化 工与特品驱动成长；钛白 ...

2025 年 07 月 20 日 行业研究 评级：推荐(维持) 证券分析师： 李永磊 S0350521080004 [Table_Title] 反内卷有望带动化工景气反转 ——基础化工行业周报 最近一年走势 | 行业相对表现 | | 2025/07/18 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 基础化工 | 5.4% | 12.0% | 22.8% | | 沪深 300 | 4.7% | 7.6% | 15.3% | 相关报告 《基础化工行业周报：丁二烯、涤纶长丝价格上涨， 磷矿石价值有望重估（推荐）*基础化工*李永磊， 董伯骏》——2025-05-18 《铬盐行业点评之五：金属铬价格持续上涨，铬盐 产业链受益（推荐）*基础化工*李永磊，董伯骏， 陈云》——2025-04-22 《基础化工行业周报：金属铬、原油、双酚 A 价格 上涨，重视芭田股份磷矿产能扩张（推荐）*基础 化工*李永磊，董伯骏》——2025-04-20 《铬盐行业点评之四：新疆沈宏进入破产重整，铬 盐行业集中度有望提升（推荐）*基础化工*李永磊， 董伯骏，陈云》——2025 ...

A股上市公司南下冲刺港股的潮流仍在持续，近日，又有一家A股公司叩响港交所大门。玲珑轮胎(601966.SH)向 港交所递交了招股说明书，计划登陆港交所主板，中信证券及招银国际为联席保荐人。 A股公司香港二次上市，看重的是"国际化"。玲珑轮胎亦不例外。该公司此次港股上市募资所得款用途计划包 括：产能扩张，特别是海外工厂的建设；提升研发能力以及提升全球营销战略。 根据智通财经APP了解，受股价持续4年出现缩水的影响，目前，玲珑轮胎A股市值只剩下约220亿元人民币。 据招股书介绍，玲珑轮胎的产品组合包括广泛的乘用及轻卡胎、卡客车胎及非公路胎，且拥有多种规格以适应不 同的应用场景；而在品牌矩阵方面，公司旗下品牌涉及了玲珑、利奥、御风、阿特拉斯、绿行及睿界。 通盘来看也不难发现，收入占比最大的乘用及轻卡胎也是这些年里为玲珑轮胎贡献最大业绩增量的业务板块。而 该业务的规模之所以能够有序增长，则得益于期内相关产品量价齐升。销量方面，23年同比上年增加了28.3%， 次年又增加了约11.2%；与此同时，22及23年的平均售价基本保持稳定，24年则有小幅上升。 | | 2022财年 | | | | 2023财年 | | | | ...

Core Viewpoint - Linglong Tire, the second-largest tire manufacturer in China, is accelerating its IPO process in Hong Kong, aiming for a dual listing in A-shares and H-shares, with a consortium of six underwriters [1][2]. Company Overview - Established in 1994, Linglong Tire has seen its net profit grow fivefold in just two years, with a steady increase in gross margin [2][4]. - The company is primarily engaged in the design, development, production, and sales of tires, with major products including passenger and light truck tires, truck and bus tires, and off-road tires [4]. - Linglong Tire holds a significant market position, ranking as the sixth-largest tire manufacturer globally and the second-largest in China, following Zhongce Rubber [4][9]. Financial Performance - Revenue for Linglong Tire has shown a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.9%, with figures of 17.006 billion yuan, 20.165 billion yuan, and 22.058 billion yuan from 2022 to 2024 [6]. - Net profit figures for the same period were approximately 292 million yuan, 1.391 billion yuan, and 1.752 billion yuan, indicating a fivefold increase in two years [6]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 5.697 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.92%, but net profit decreased by 22.78% due to rising raw material costs [6]. Market Position and Strategy - Linglong Tire has established a global presence with seven domestic and two overseas production bases, implementing a "7+5" global strategy and a "3+3" off-road tire production strategy [10][11]. - The company has plans to invest approximately 11.9 billion USD (about 87.1 billion yuan) in a new factory in Brazil, which is expected to generate an annual net profit of 1.66 billion USD (about 12.13 billion yuan) [11][12]. - The overseas revenue contribution has reached nearly half of the total sales, with domestic sales at 11.08 billion yuan and overseas sales at 10.73 billion yuan in 2024 [13]. Industry Context - The global tire market is experiencing steady growth, with an expected increase in tire sales from 1.659 billion units in 2020 to 1.931 billion units in 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 3.9% [9]. - Linglong Tire's growth is supported by the high demand in the tire industry, particularly in the context of the rising popularity of electric vehicles [10].

Core Insights - Linglong Tire has been awarded the title of "China Excellent Management Company" for the first time, recognizing its outstanding comprehensive management capabilities [1][2] - The BMC project, organized by Deloitte China, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology Business School, and Harvard Business Review Chinese Edition, evaluates companies based on a global framework across four dimensions: strategy, capability, commitment, and financial strength [1] - Linglong Tire is a leading tire manufacturer in China and ranks first globally in the sales of tires for new energy vehicles [1] Company Strategy - The company focuses on a multi-regional global strategy and is accelerating the construction of intelligent production bases while implementing a digital transformation strategy [1][2] - Linglong aims to create advanced factories that are intelligent, automated, and environmentally friendly, establishing a global manufacturing network [1] Competitive Strength - Linglong Tire enhances its core competitiveness through product, channel, and brand development, continuously launching mid-to-high-end products and leading technological breakthroughs [1] - The company has achieved excellent product quality, with some products rated at 3A level under the EU labeling law, reaching an internationally advanced level overall [1] Digital Transformation - The company is significantly advancing its digital transformation by integrating big data and artificial intelligence into manufacturing, creating an industry-leading "smart brain" [2] - Collaboration between smart manufacturing and smart retail optimizes inventory, improves delivery efficiency, and enhances operational effectiveness [2] Sustainable Development - Linglong Tire is committed to sustainable development, focusing on "new quality productivity" and actively engaging in "green," "harmonious," and "smart" initiatives [2] - The company emphasizes ESG principles to build a low-carbon industrial chain benchmark and values global talent development through innovative training models and deepening industry-academia collaboration [2] Recognition and Future Goals - The recent award signifies international recognition of Linglong's comprehensive strength in strategic layout, operational management, innovation capability, and sustainable development [2] - The company will continue to deepen its global strategy and digital transformation while adhering to ESG principles, driving high-quality development towards the goal of becoming a world-class tire enterprise [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the chemical industry, with specific buy and hold recommendations for various companies [2][20]. Core Insights - The report highlights the closure of Dow's organic silicon production capacity in Barry, UK, which is expected to increase domestic export demand and support the upstream industrial silicon costs, indicating a potential reversal in the organic silicon industry [4][5]. - The demand for high-end AI PCBs is projected to surge due to the continuous growth in computing power requirements, driven by GPU, ASIC, and 800G switch technologies [4]. - The report notes that the recent tariff announcements from the US on imports from Southeast Asia are lower than expected, stabilizing pessimistic market sentiments [4]. Industry Dynamics - The macroeconomic outlook for the chemical industry indicates a significant increase in oil supply led by non-OPEC countries, with a stable global GDP growth rate of 2.8% [5]. - The report mentions that coal prices are expected to decline in the medium to long term, alleviating pressure on downstream sectors [5]. - Natural gas exports from the US are anticipated to accelerate, potentially lowering import costs [5]. Company Recommendations - Companies to watch in the organic silicon sector include Dongyue Silicon Materials, Xin'an Chemical, and Xingfa Group [4]. - In the PCB sector, recommended companies include Shengquan Group, Dongcai Technology, Lianrui New Materials, Yake Technology, Tiancheng Technology, and Jiuri New Materials [4]. - For traditional cyclical stocks, the report suggests focusing on leading companies in various segments such as Wanhu Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, and Baofeng Energy [4]. Price Trends - The report provides specific price movements for various chemical products, such as PTA prices decreasing by 2.8% to 4715 RMB/ton, while MEG prices increased by 0.7% to 4409 RMB/ton [11]. - Urea prices rose by 2.9% to 1800 RMB/ton, while phosphate prices remained stable [12]. - The report notes that the price of DMC increased by 1.9% to 11000 RMB/ton, indicating a recovery in the organic silicon market [15].

Group 1: Core Insights - A-share companies are experiencing significant overseas expansion, with notable achievements in infrastructure, biomedicine, and equipment manufacturing, leading to large overseas orders [2][3] - The shift in Chinese enterprises' overseas strategy is moving from cost-driven to innovation-driven, leveraging advanced supply chains, international talent, and digital technologies [2] Group 2: Large Orders and Competitive Strength - A-share companies have secured substantial overseas contracts, particularly in the infrastructure sector, with notable projects including a $1.6 billion contract for a gas processing plant in Iraq and contracts totaling approximately 5.34 billion yuan for the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway [3][4] - In the biomedicine sector, companies like Rongchang Bio are accelerating internationalization, exemplified by a licensing agreement with Vor Bio worth up to $4.1 billion [4] - Equipment manufacturing firms are also making strides, with agreements such as a $406 million contract for a conveyor system in Guinea, enhancing their international market presence [4] Group 3: Accelerated Overseas Capacity Layout - Several A-share companies are intensifying their overseas production capacity, viewing local production as a key driver for global competitiveness [6] - Companies like Linglong Tire are investing $1.193 billion in a production base in Brazil, aiming for an annual output of 14.7 million high-performance tires [6] - Other firms, such as North Special Technology and Zhongke Electric, are also establishing production bases in Thailand and Oman, respectively, to enhance their global supply chain [7] Group 4: Rising Trend of Overseas Mergers and Acquisitions - The number of disclosed overseas mergers and acquisitions by A-share companies has surpassed 60 in the first half of the year, with a focus on electronics, automotive parts, and machinery [9] - Companies are pursuing overseas acquisitions to enter emerging markets and enhance their technological capabilities, as seen with Dongshan Precision's dual acquisitions in the optical communication sector [9][10] - The strategy of overseas mergers and acquisitions is aimed at resource and market integration, with firms like Luoyang Molybdenum consolidating their overseas mineral resource reserves [10]

Core Viewpoint - Shandong Linglong Tire Co., Ltd. is seeking to raise funds through an IPO in the Hong Kong market due to deteriorating financial conditions, including rising debt levels and declining profitability, despite some revenue growth in recent years [1][10]. Financial Performance - The company's net profit has significantly declined since 2020, with a drop of 64.48% in 2021 and 63.03% in 2022, and while there is revenue growth in 2023 and 2024, net profit has not returned to 2020 levels [1][10]. - In Q1 2025, revenue increased by 12.92% to 5.697 billion yuan, but net profit fell by 22.78% to 341 million yuan due to pricing pressures and raw material cost fluctuations [1][3]. Cost Structure - The cost of key raw materials, including natural rubber and synthetic rubber, has increased by 14% year-on-year in Q1 2025, contributing to profit volatility [3]. - The company's inventory has been rising, reaching 5.916 billion yuan by Q1 2025, up from 4.472 billion yuan in 2022 [3]. Debt and Liquidity - The asset-liability ratio has been increasing, recorded at 48.51% in 2022 and projected to reach 53.94% in 2024 [5]. - As of Q1 2025, the company faces a short-term debt and cash gap of approximately 10.139 billion yuan, with short-term debts totaling 14.661 billion yuan against cash reserves of only 4.522 billion yuan [7]. Previous Financing Efforts - Since its A-share listing in 2016, the company has raised a total of 6.4 billion yuan through multiple financing rounds, including a 2.5 billion yuan initial public offering and subsequent fundraising efforts [7][8]. Market Conditions - The company's stock price has dropped over 70% from its peak of 55.2 yuan per share in April 2021, leading to a market capitalization decline from over 750 billion yuan to around 200 billion yuan [9][10]. - The IPO in Hong Kong is seen as a potential solution to the company's financial struggles, but there are concerns about market reception and valuation risks due to the company's current operational challenges [10][15]. Strategic Initiatives - The funds raised from the Hong Kong IPO are intended for various purposes, including financing a new factory in Brazil, enhancing R&D capabilities, and improving global marketing strategies [12]. - The company plans to invest 8.71 billion yuan in the Brazilian factory, which is expected to generate annual revenues of 7.758 billion yuan and net profits of 1.213 billion yuan upon completion [13]. Operational Efficiency - The utilization rate of the company's production facilities is below 60%, with only 6 out of 17 major projects achieving over 70% utilization [13][14].

Core Viewpoint - The major shareholder, Linglong Group, has increased its stake in Linglong Tire from 53.70% to 54.00%, reflecting confidence in the company's future development and value [1][2]. Group 1: Shareholder Information - Linglong Group, the controlling shareholder, has committed to providing accurate and complete information regarding its shareholding changes [1]. - The increase in shareholding does not violate any prior commitments or plans made by the shareholder [1][2]. Group 2: Shareholding Changes - Linglong Group plans to increase its shareholding by investing between RMB 200 million and RMB 300 million through the Shanghai Stock Exchange, without setting a price range for the purchases [1][2]. - From May 7 to July 9, 2025, Linglong Group has already invested approximately RMB 64.82 million to increase its stake [2]. Group 3: Impact and Future Plans - The increase in shareholding is not expected to significantly impact the company's governance structure or ongoing operations [2]. - The company will continue to monitor the progress of the shareholding increase and fulfill its information disclosure obligations as required [2].

证券代码：601966 证券简称：玲珑轮胎 公告编号：2025-051 山东玲珑轮胎股份有限公司 关于持股 5%以上股东权益变动触及 1%刻度的 提示性公告 一、 信息披露义务人及其一致行动人的基本信息 1.身份类别 | | ☑控股股东/实际控制人及其一致行动人 □其他 5%以上大股东及其一致行动人 | | --- | --- | | 投资者及其一致行动人的身份 | □合并口径第一大股东及其一致行动人（仅适用 | | | 于无控股股东、实际控制人） | | | □其他______________（请注明） | 2.信息披露义务人信息 | 信息披露义务人名称 | | 投资者身份 | 统一社会信用代码 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 玲珑集团有限公司 | ☑ | 控股股东/实控人 | | | | □ | 控股股东/实控人的一致 | 91370685165240379N ☑ | | | 行动人 | | □ 不适用 | | | □ | 其他直接持股股东 | | 重要内容提示： 权益变动方向 比例增加☑ 比例减少□ 权益变动前合计比例 53.70% 权益变动后合计比例 54.00% 本次变动 ...