Zelgen(688266) 国泰君安·2024-11-04 13:23Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [2][4]. Core Views - The company is experiencing accelerated product volume and significantly reduced losses, with core pipelines entering a harvest phase [3][4]. - The early pipeline is steadily advancing, expected to catalyze a new growth cycle [3][4]. Financial Summary - The company achieved revenue of 384 million yuan in Q1-Q3 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 36.16%. Q3 revenue reached 143 million yuan, up 130.67% year-on-year and 8.28% quarter-on-quarter, driven by the product Donafenib [4]. - The net loss for Q1-Q3 2024 was 98 million yuan, a reduction of 104 million yuan year-on-year, indicating a trend towards reduced losses [4]. - The EPS forecasts for 2024-2026 are -0.63, 0.30, and 1.49 yuan, respectively, with a target price maintained at 75.02 yuan, corresponding to a 29X PS for 2024 [4]. Product Pipeline - The company's core product, recombinant human thrombin, was approved for market launch in January 2024, characterized by high purity and hemostatic activity [4]. - The JAK inhibitor, Jikaxitinib, is currently under review for market approval, with multiple indications for autoimmune diseases progressing [4]. - The early pipeline includes ZG006, a trispecific antibody targeting DLL3, showing promising efficacy in early clinical trials [4]. Market Data - The current stock price is 62.94 yuan, with a target price of 75.02 yuan [2]. - The market capitalization is 16.661 billion yuan, with a total share capital of 265 million shares [5]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 699 million, 1.313 billion, and 2.257 billion yuan, respectively, with significant growth rates anticipated [9]. - The net profit (attributable to the parent company) is projected to improve from a loss of 168 million yuan in 2024 to a profit of 395 million yuan in 2026 [9]. Operational Efficiency - The company has improved operational efficiency, with a notable decrease in sales expense ratio and a decrease in R&D expense ratio due to the completion of several clinical registrations [4].