MANGO(300413) 国信证券·2024-11-04 13:23Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [3][7][8] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 10.278 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.444 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year decline of 0.85% and 18.96% respectively. The decline is attributed to the impact of industry regulations and the expiration of tax exemption policies [1][5] - The effective membership count for Mango TV exceeded 70 million, with membership revenue for the first half of the year reaching 2.486 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27%. This growth is driven by high-quality content and an innovative membership benefits system [1][5] - The content ecosystem continues to improve, with 31 seasonal variety shows launched in Q3, positioning the company among the top in the long video platform sector. Upcoming key programs are expected to further enhance content performance in Q4 [1][6][7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3, the company achieved a revenue of 3.318 billion yuan and a net profit of 380 million yuan, with year-on-year declines of 7.14% and 27.41% respectively. The decline in revenue and profit is primarily due to the impact of regulatory changes in the television industry and the expiration of tax benefits [1][5] - The net cash flow from operating activities for the first three quarters was -325 million yuan, a significant decrease from 1.091 billion yuan in the same period last year, mainly due to increased investment in content [1][5] Membership and Advertising Business - The membership business showed strong performance, with Mango TV's effective membership exceeding 70 million. The membership revenue for the first half of the year was 2.486 billion yuan, up 27% year-on-year, supported by popular shows and an enhanced membership benefits system [1][5] - The advertising revenue for the first half was 1.721 billion yuan, down 4% year-on-year, with expectations of continued trends into Q3. The company aims to recover advertising revenue through innovative marketing strategies and optimized AI algorithms [1][5] Content Development - The company launched 31 seasonal variety shows in Q3, ranking among the top in the long video platform sector. Notable shows include "Hello, Saturday 2024" and "Chinese Restaurant 8," which are expected to drive content performance in Q4 [1][6][7] - In terms of drama series, popular titles such as "You Are More Beautiful Than Starlight" and "Private Romance" were released in Q3, with more anticipated releases expected to maintain viewer engagement [1][6][7] Investment Outlook - The profit forecast for the company remains unchanged, with expected net profits of 1.96 billion yuan, 2.19 billion yuan, and 2.44 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively. The corresponding EPS is projected to be 1.05 yuan, 1.17 yuan, and 1.30 yuan [1][7][8]