四川九洲：2024年三季报点评：业绩小幅承压，合同负债同比增加

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance has slightly come under pressure, with total revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 at 2.722 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.76%, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 120 million yuan, down 15.10% year-on-year. However, there was a recovery in the third quarter, with total revenue of 965 million yuan, an increase of 5.88% year-on-year, and net profit of 52 million yuan, a decrease of 6.39% year-on-year [1][2] - The company has seen a significant decrease in accounts receivable, down 84.09% year-on-year, and a reduction in receivables financing by 37.95%. Prepayments increased by 205.48% due to increased project procurement prepayments. Contract liabilities increased by 60.60% year-on-year due to an increase in received contract prepayments [1][2] - The establishment of a joint venture in low-altitude economy testing services is expected to create new business growth points and enhance the company's competitive edge in the aviation service sector [3] - The profit forecast has been adjusted downwards, with expected net profits for 2024-2026 at 209 million, 250 million, and 291 million yuan respectively, corresponding to P/E ratios of 70, 59, and 50 times [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total revenue for 2024 is projected to be 3.934 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.66%. Net profit is expected to be 208.80 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 4.21% year-on-year [1][10] - The company's cash flow from operating activities has decreased by 50.73% year-on-year, while cash flow from investing activities has dropped by 43.51% due to increased fixed asset investments [2][11] Business Developments - The joint venture with Mianyang Technology City aims to capitalize on low-altitude economic opportunities, enhancing the company's service offerings and revenue sources [3] - The company has a strong order backlog, primarily from government and institutional clients, which is expected to improve cash flow and revenue recognition in the upcoming quarters [2] Valuation Metrics - The company's P/E ratio is currently at 73.25, projected to decrease to 70.29 in 2024 and further to 58.72 in 2025 [10][11] - The projected net profit margins are expected to improve slightly, with net profit margins of 5.31% in 2024 and 5.60% in 2025 [10]