阳光电源：2024年三季报点评报告：业绩短期承压，长期增长空间广阔

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has shown stable revenue growth, with a year-on-year increase of 7.61% in revenue for the first three quarters of 2024, reaching 49.946 billion yuan. However, net profit for Q3 2024 decreased by 7.96% year-on-year to 2.640 billion yuan, indicating short-term pressure on profitability [1] - The company is a leading player in the energy storage system integration sector and has established a global development strategy, with production capacities in India and Thailand reaching 25GW. The energy storage systems are widely applied in mature markets across Europe, America, the Middle East, and Asia-Pacific [1] - The company is expected to benefit from global demand growth, with projected net profits for 2024-2026 being 11.984 billion yuan, 13.236 billion yuan, and 15.753 billion yuan respectively. The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 15.3 for 2024, which is considered reasonable compared to peers [1][2] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 49.946 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.61%, and a net profit of 7.600 billion yuan, up 5.21% year-on-year. The Q3 2024 revenue was 18.926 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.37% [1] - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 29.52%, with a slight increase of 0.02 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, while the net margin was 14.16%, down 1.81 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1] - Inventory increased significantly, reaching 32.151 billion yuan by the end of Q3 2024, a year-on-year increase of 19.7% and up 14.3% from the mid-year report [1] Earnings Forecast - The company’s projected revenue for 2024 is 88.614 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 22.6%. The net profit for 2024 is expected to be 11.984 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 27.0% [2][4] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 30.6% in 2024, decreasing to 23.9% by 2026 [2][5] Comparable Company Valuation - The average PE ratio for comparable companies for 2024-2026 is 21.7, 16.0, and 12.5 respectively, indicating that the company's current valuation is reasonable [1][3]