NANSHAN ALUMINIUM(600219) 光大证券·2024-11-05 00:43Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Nanshan Aluminum (600219 SH) [3] Core Views - Nanshan Aluminum's Q3 performance showed strong year-on-year growth, driven by increased volume and prices of alumina [1] - The company's growth is attributed to the rising prices and volumes of its Indonesian alumina project, with domestic and international alumina prices remaining high [1] - The average domestic alumina price in Q3 2024 was 3,916 RMB/ton, up 37 49% YoY, while the international alumina price averaged 505 USD/ton, up 48 96% YoY [1] - Supply-demand dynamics supported strong alumina prices both domestically and internationally, with tight supply due to slow domestic bauxite mine resumption and overseas alumina plant reductions [1] - The company is expanding its overseas footprint with new projects in Indonesia, including an additional 2 million tons of alumina capacity and a 250,000-ton electrolytic aluminum project [2] - Nanshan Aluminum is a key supplier of aviation plates for the domestic C919 aircraft project and is advancing its automotive plate capacity, with 200,000 tons in production and another 200,000 tons under construction [2] - The company announced a cumulative cash dividend ratio of 26 77% for the first three quarters of 2024, with plans to distribute at least 40% of annual distributable profits as cash dividends from 2024 to 2026 [2] Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of 8 559 billion RMB, up 19 06% YoY, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 1 301 billion RMB, up 57% YoY [4] - For the first three quarters of 2024, revenue reached 24 226 billion RMB, up 11 7% YoY, and net profit attributable to shareholders was 3 49 billion RMB, up 62 94% YoY [4] - The company's net profit margin for Q3 2024 was 15 20%, with a YoY growth rate of 57% [9] - The company's ROE (diluted) for Q3 2024 was 9 31%, and its free cash flow for the quarter was 1 35 billion RMB [9] Valuation and Forecast - The report raised earnings forecasts for 2024/2025/2026, with expected net profits of 4 63 billion RMB, 5 10 billion RMB, and 5 54 billion RMB, respectively, representing upward revisions of 22 8%, 25 6%, and 24 7% [3] - The current PE ratios for 2024/2025/2026 are 11X, 10X, and 9X, respectively [3] - The company's EPS for 2024/2025/2026 is projected to be 0 40 RMB, 0 44 RMB, and 0 47 RMB, respectively [3] Industry and Market Position - Nanshan Aluminum is a leading integrated player in the aluminum industry, with significant investments in overseas projects and a strong position in high-value-added products like automotive and aviation plates [2] - The company's expansion in Indonesia and its focus on high-end aluminum products position it well to benefit from future growth in the aerospace and automotive sectors [2]