Sinotruk Jinan Truck (SZ:000951) Southwest Securities·2024-11-05 01:12Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China National Heavy Duty Truck Group Co., Ltd. (000951) [1][4]. Core Views - The company reported significant profit growth in Q3 2024, with a year-on-year increase in net profit of 97.9% despite a revenue decline of 13.2% compared to the same quarter last year [2][3]. - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 33.59 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.2%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 930 million yuan, up 42.5% year-on-year [1][2]. - The strategic layout in the natural gas sector has shown positive results, with a 121.1% increase in natural gas heavy truck sales year-on-year [2]. - The company is optimistic about the long-term prospects of new energy heavy trucks, with a 327.0% increase in sales in the first nine months of 2024 [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 8.3%, up 1.7 percentage points year-on-year, and a net margin of 4.4%, up 2.3 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The operating income for 2024 is projected to grow from 42.07 billion yuan in 2023 to 63.18 billion yuan in 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 20.9% for net profit [5][4]. Market Position - The company maintained a market share of 27.5% in the commercial vehicle sector, with a slight increase of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The implementation of new policies in major cities like Beijing and Shanghai to replace older trucks with new energy vehicles is expected to positively impact the heavy truck market [3]. Future Outlook - The report forecasts earnings per share (EPS) of 1.11 yuan for 2024, increasing to 1.63 yuan by 2026, indicating a strong growth trajectory [4][5]. - The company is expected to benefit from ongoing policy support and market demand for new energy vehicles, which will drive future sales growth [3][2].