迎驾贡酒：公司季报点评：产品结构延续升级，主动调整收入承压

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's 2024 Q1-3 revenue reached 5,513 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.8%, with net profit attributable to shareholders of 2,006 million yuan, up 20.2% year-on-year [4] - In Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of 1,711 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 625 million yuan, up 2.9% year-on-year [4] - The company's mid-to-high-end liquor segment grew by 18.6% year-on-year in Q1-3 2024, while ordinary liquor grew by 2.4% [5] - The company's gross margin in Q3 2024 increased by 2.88 percentage points year-on-year to 75.8%, driven by product structure upgrades [5] Financial Performance - The company's revenue for 2024E is projected to be 7,542 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 12.2% [7] - Net profit for 2024E is expected to be 2,716 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 18.7% [7] - The company's EPS for 2024E is forecasted to be 3.39 yuan per share [7] - The company's gross margin is expected to increase from 71.4% in 2023 to 76.0% in 2026E [7] Valuation and Forecast - The report gives the company a 2024 PE range of 20-25x, with a fair value range of 67.89-84.86 yuan per share [6] - The company's EPS is expected to grow from 3.39 yuan in 2024E to 4.56 yuan in 2026E [6] - The company's net profit is projected to increase from 2,716 million yuan in 2024E to 3,646 million yuan in 2026E [7] Market and Product Analysis - In Q3 2024, the company's domestic revenue increased by 6.8% year-on-year to 1,116 million yuan, while overseas revenue decreased by 3.6% year-on-year to 516 million yuan [5] - The number of domestic distributors increased by 3 to 782, while the number of overseas distributors decreased by 4 to 640 [5] - The company's direct sales (including group purchases) revenue increased by 11.9% year-on-year in Q3 2024, while wholesale agency revenue increased by 2.8% [5] Profitability and Efficiency - The company's net profit margin in Q3 2024 increased by 0.19 percentage points year-on-year to 36.5% [6] - The company's ROE is expected to remain stable, with a slight increase from 27.4% in 2023 to 27.7% in 2024E [7] - The company's asset turnover ratio is projected to decrease slightly from 0.57 in 2023 to 0.54 in 2026E [9] Cash Flow and Liquidity - The company's operating cash flow is expected to increase from 2,198 million yuan in 2023 to 3,791 million yuan in 2026E [10] - The company's cash ratio is projected to improve from 0.71 in 2023 to 1.84 in 2026E [10] - The company's quick ratio is expected to increase from 1.45 in 2023 to 2.41 in 2026E [10]