HYPC(000703) 光大证券·2024-11-05 01:39Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [2] Core Views - Q3 performance declined due to increased inventory losses, but the company's growth prospects remain promising with steady progress in capacity construction [2] - Aromatic product margins declined, and oil price fluctuations led to inventory losses, putting pressure on Q3 performance [4] - The Brunei Phase II project is progressing smoothly, and the company's under-construction capacities are expected to enhance future performance [4] - The company's stock buyback and employee持股 plans demonstrate confidence in future development [4] - Profit forecasts for 2024-2026 have been revised downward due to declining oil prices and aromatic product margins, but the company's expansion in PTA and polyester capacities supports a positive outlook [4] Financial Performance - Q3 2024 revenue was 30.1 billion yuan, down 19.3% YoY and 9.2% QoQ, with a net loss of 199 million yuan, down 330 million yuan YoY and 220 million yuan QoQ [2] - Q3 2024 Brent crude oil average price was $79/barrel, down 8% YoY and 7% QoQ [4] - Q3 2024 PX margin was 660 yuan/ton, down 801 yuan/ton YoY but up 228 yuan/ton QoQ [4] - Q3 2024 PTA margin was 384 yuan/ton, up 125 yuan/ton YoY but down 1 yuan/ton QoQ [4] - Q3 2024 polyester POY margin was 1,186 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton YoY and 154 yuan/ton QoQ [4] Capacity Expansion - The Brunei Phase II project includes 14 million tons of refining capacity, 6 million tons of refined oil, 2 million tons of PX, 2.5 million tons of PTA, 1 million tons of PET, and 1.65 million tons of ethylene and downstream products [4] - The Hainan Yesheng project's first 600,000-ton functional material unit has started trial production, with the remaining two units (1.2 million tons) expected to begin trial production in H2 2024 [4] - The Qinzhou "1.2 million tons/year caprolactam-polyamide integration and supporting project" is expected to enhance the company's market share in bottle chips and nylon sectors [4] Stock Buyback and Employee持股 - As of September 4, 2024, the company has repurchased 117 million shares, accounting for 3.2% of total shares, with a total repurchase amount of 2.7 billion yuan [4] - The sixth employee持股 plan, completed on August 7, 2024, holds 114 million shares, accounting for 3.11% of total shares [4] Profit Forecast - 2024 net profit forecast revised down by 38% to 587 million yuan, with EPS of 0.16 yuan [4] - 2025 net profit forecast revised down by 20% to 1.09 billion yuan, with EPS of 0.30 yuan [4] - 2026 net profit forecast revised down by 8% to 1.488 billion yuan, with EPS of 0.41 yuan [4] Market Data - Total shares: 3.666 billion [2] - Market capitalization: 23.134 billion yuan [2] - 1-year low/high: 5.36 yuan/7.85 yuan [2] - 3-month turnover rate: 29.69% [2]