Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has shown stable revenue growth, with a notable performance in its online business. The third quarter revenue reached 6.01 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.91% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for the third quarter was 1.022 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.63% year-on-year. The adjusted net profit was 928 million yuan, down 6.84% year-on-year [1] - The report indicates that the gross profit margin has come under pressure, decreasing by 0.61 percentage points to 19.78% year-on-year, while the net profit margin also fell by 1.12 percentage points [1] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue Forecasts: - 2023A: 23,351 million yuan - 2024E: 25,483 million yuan (growth rate of 9%) - 2025E: 29,069 million yuan (growth rate of 14%) - 2026E: 33,091 million yuan (growth rate of 14%) [1] - Net Profit Forecasts: - 2023A: 1,527 million yuan - 2024E: 1,562 million yuan (growth rate of 2%) - 2025E: 1,798 million yuan (growth rate of 15%) - 2026E: 1,959 million yuan (growth rate of 9%) [1] - Earnings Per Share (EPS): - 2023A: 1.65 yuan - 2024E: 1.69 yuan - 2025E: 1.94 yuan - 2026E: 2.11 yuan [1] - Cash Flow: - Operating cash flow for the first three quarters was 14.21 billion yuan, with a quarterly cash flow of 6.87 billion yuan, up 2.38% year-on-year [1] Business Segment Performance - The online business has performed exceptionally well, while traditional business revenue showed signs of recovery. The report highlights that the core category of writing instruments remains resilient, with third-quarter revenue of 7.13 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1% [1] - The report notes that the company has 740 lifestyle stores nationwide, with the revenue from these stores increasing by 13% year-on-year [1] Investment Recommendation - The report suggests that the company, as a leader in the stationery industry, is expected to drive long-term stable growth through both traditional core business and new business initiatives. The profit forecast has been adjusted downward based on the third-quarter performance, with expected net profits for 2024-2026 being 1.56 billion, 1.79 billion, and 1.96 billion yuan respectively [1]
晨光股份24Q3点评:收入稳定增长,线上业务表现靓丽