JUNEYAOAIR(603885) 国海证券·2024-11-05 02:00Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [2] Core Views - Despite a year-on-year decline in Q3 profits, the long-term growth potential of the company is optimistic [2] - The company achieved revenue of 17.492 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 10.15%, with net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.271 billion yuan, up 10.12% year-on-year [2] - Q3 revenue was 6.536 billion yuan, down 0.20% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to the parent company was 782 million yuan, down 27.21% year-on-year [2] Operational Performance - International routes saw significant growth in Q3, with overall travel demand remaining strong, but revenue levels were under pressure [3] - Total ASK (Available Seat Kilometers) increased by 13.42% year-on-year in Q3, with domestic ASK down 1.85% and regional + international ASK up 116.97% compared to the same period in 2019 [3] - Domestic load factor improved slightly by 1.25 percentage points to 88.87% in Q3, while regional + international load factor decreased by 1.14 percentage points to 76.14% [3] - Unit ASK cost decreased by 3.5% year-on-year to 0.346 yuan, lower than the same period in 2019 [3] Financial Metrics - The company's current price is 13.22 yuan, with a 52-week price range of 9.92-14.90 yuan [3] - Total market capitalization is 29.07085 billion yuan, with a total share capital of 2.199 billion shares [3] - Daily average trading volume is 221.80 million yuan, with a one-month turnover rate of 1.23% [3] Future Outlook - Oil prices are expected to decline, reducing operational costs, with domestic jet fuel prices in October 2024 falling by 13.3% compared to the average price in the first three quarters of 2024 [7] - The company's net profit is expected to increase by 1.33 billion yuan for every 5% decrease in fuel prices [7] - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are 22.020 billion yuan, 23.866 billion yuan, and 25.271 billion yuan, respectively, with net profit attributable to the parent company expected to be 1.036 billion yuan, 2.002 billion yuan, and 2.305 billion yuan [7] - The company's PE ratios for 2024-2026 are projected to be 28.06x, 14.52x, and 12.61x, respectively [7] Strategic Positioning - The company is positioned to benefit from the dual-brand strategy of Juneyao and 9 Air, covering both full-service and low-cost market segments [7] - Long-term growth potential is supported by the recovery in air travel demand and the company's differentiated competitive advantages [7]