Sansec(688489) 国信证券·2024-11-05 04:10Investment Rating - Maintains "Outperform" rating [4][11] Core Views - Q3 performance under pressure: Revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was RMB 255 million (+7.81%), while net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 14 million (-64.33%), and non-GAAP net profit was RMB 3 million (-90%) [1][8] - Single Q3 revenue was RMB 85 million (-35.66%), with net profit attributable to the parent company at RMB 0 million and non-GAAP net profit at -RMB 5 million, showing significant decline [1][8] - The decline is attributed to macroeconomic impacts, leading to delays in project delivery and acceptance, which affected revenue [1][8] Merger and Acquisition - Plans to acquire 81.82% of Jiangnan Tianan for RMB 262 million, valuing the company at RMB 320 million [2] - Jiangnan Tianan's 2023 revenue was RMB 155 million, with net profit attributable to the parent company at RMB 20 million, resulting in a 2023 acquisition PE of 16x [2] - Jiangnan Tianan has committed to achieving cumulative net profit growth of 315% over 2023 levels from 2024 to 2026 [2] - The acquisition aims to expand market share and enhance future performance [2] Industry Integration - Following the acquisition of Jiangnan Keyou last year, the company continues to integrate the cryptography industry [3] - Jiangnan Tianan's product structure is similar but focuses more on the public cloud market, complementing the company's downstream strengths [3] - The company is actively collaborating with Huawei Cloud and expanding application scenarios for cryptographic chips and machines [3] - The cryptography industry is relatively fragmented, and the company's integration efforts aim to improve pricing power [3] Quantum Technology - The company has released a new series of anti-quantum cryptography products, including chips, boards, UKEYs, cryptographic machines, and gateways [3] - These products support a full range of anti-quantum cryptographic algorithms and are being actively promoted in sectors like finance, telecommunications, and power [3] Financial Forecasts - Revenue for 2024E is forecasted at RMB 445 million (+24.2%), with net profit attributable to the parent company at RMB 80 million (+18.3%) [5][11] - Revenue for 2025E is projected at RMB 574 million (+29.0%), with net profit at RMB 114 million (+43.8%) [5][11] - Revenue for 2026E is expected to reach RMB 711 million (+23.7%), with net profit at RMB 153 million (+33.9%) [5][11] - The company's PE ratios for 2024-2026 are 52x, 36x, and 27x, respectively [4][11] Key Financial Metrics - EBIT Margin for 2024E is forecasted at 12.2%, increasing to 18.6% by 2026E [5] - ROE for 2024E is projected at 4.1%, rising to 7.4% by 2026E [5] - The company's EV/EBITDA for 2024E is 63.4x, decreasing to 29.7x by 2026E [5]