乐歌股份：海外仓扩张提速

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a 6-month outlook [1] Core Views - The company's overseas warehouse expansion is accelerating, with 160,000 square meters of new warehouses opened in Q3 2024 [2] - Cross-border e-commerce revenue reached 1.48 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, a 15.87% YoY increase [3] - Overseas warehouse revenue surged 147% YoY to 1.439 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024 [3] - The company's gross margin declined by 6.7 percentage points YoY to 29.8% in the first three quarters of 2024 [2] Financial Performance - Q1-Q3 2024 revenue reached 3.98 billion yuan, a 48% YoY increase [2] - Net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 48.6% YoY to 270 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2024 [2] - Q3 2024 revenue grew 53.7% YoY to 1.55 billion yuan [2] - The company's net profit margin dropped by 12.6 percentage points YoY to 6.7% in the first three quarters of 2024 [2] Business Segments - Cross-border e-commerce accounted for over 10% of revenue, driven by new ergonomic chair and electric sofa products [3] - The company's independent website grew 23% YoY in the first three quarters of 2024, outpacing Amazon's 10.63% growth [3] - Domestic brand sales performed well during Double 11, ranking first in the lift desk category on JD.com and Tmall [4] Industry and Market Position - The company operates 19 global warehouses with a total area of 621,100 square meters as of September 2024 [3] - Over 70% of overseas warehouse customers have the capability to export goods from regions outside China, such as Southeast Asia [4] - The company's market share in the domestic lift desk category has increased [4] Financial Projections - The report forecasts net profit attributable to the parent company of 450 million yuan, 500 million yuan, and 570 million yuan for 2024-2026 [5] - The company's PE ratio is expected to be 12X, 11X, and 10X for 2024-2026 [5] - Revenue is projected to grow 37.13% in 2024, followed by 22.53% in 2025 and 19.90% in 2026 [8] Valuation Metrics - The company's A-share market capitalization stands at 5.423 billion yuan [6] - The price-to-book ratio is expected to decline from 1.62 in 2024 to 1.30 in 2026 [8] - The EV/EBITDA ratio is projected to decrease from 6.50 in 2024 to 4.73 in 2026 [8]