TKGF(601233) 国泰君安·2024-11-05 05:08Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tongkun Co., Ltd. (桐昆股份) [4] Core Views - The high temperatures in Q3 have negatively impacted the demand for long filaments, but various stimulus policies are being introduced, awaiting a recovery in downstream chemical product demand [2] - The company's Q3 performance was below expectations, with a revenue of 76.049 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.17%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -0.59 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 107.34% [2] - The report has adjusted the earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2024-2026 to 0.67, 1.10, and 1.53 yuan respectively, down from previous estimates of 0.98, 1.11, and 1.54 yuan [2] Financial Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 760.49 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 23.17% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 57.73% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters was 1.007 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.41% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 5.50% [2] - The report projects revenues of 97.381 billion yuan for 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 17.8% [3] Price and Valuation - The target price has been adjusted to 14.30 yuan from the previous 15.70 yuan, based on a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 13 times for 2025 [2][4] - The current price of the stock is 12.17 yuan, with a market capitalization of 29.343 billion yuan [5][4] Market Data - The stock has a 52-week price range of 10.25 to 16.34 yuan [5] - The company holds a 20% stake in Zhejiang Petrochemical, which has contributed significantly to its investment income, amounting to 530 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, compared to 74 million yuan in the same period of 2023 [2]