Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 12.98 per share [4]. Core Views - The company has achieved an alumina self-sufficiency rate of 156%, benefiting from high alumina prices [1]. - For the first three quarters of 2024, the subsidiary Shandong Hongqiao New Materials Co., Ltd. reported a revenue of CNY 110.07 billion, a year-on-year increase of 12.5%, and a net profit of CNY 15.75 billion, a year-on-year increase of 141.4% [1]. - The increase in revenue and profit is attributed to rising alumina prices and decreasing costs of coal and prebaked anodes [1]. - The average domestic alumina price in Q3 was CNY 3,940.8 per ton, an increase of 8.1% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The company is expanding its alumina production capacity, with a total capacity of 19.5 million tons, ensuring stable raw material supply and cost advantages [1]. - The upcoming inclusion of electrolytic aluminum in the national carbon market may lead to increased production costs for coal-fired aluminum, potentially benefiting companies using hydropower [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company expects net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be CNY 19.55 billion, CNY 21.79 billion, and CNY 22.53 billion respectively, reflecting significant upward adjustments of 43.1%, 50.8%, and 51.3% [2]. - The projected P/E ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 5.8, 5.2, and 5.0 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation compared to industry peers [2]. Revenue and Profit Growth - Revenue for 2024 is projected to be CNY 149.55 billion, with a growth rate of 11.92% [3]. - The net profit for 2024 is expected to grow by 70.61% compared to the previous year [3]. Production Capacity - The company has a domestic alumina production capacity of 17.5 million tons and an additional 2 million tons in Indonesia, totaling 19.5 million tons [1]. - The electrolytic aluminum production capacity is approximately 6.46 million tons, with aluminum alloy processing output of about 493,000 tons [1]. Market Position - The company holds a leading position in the domestic alumina industry, benefiting from high alumina prices and a robust supply chain [2][1].
中国宏桥：公告点评：公司氧化铝自给率达到156%，一体化龙头受益于氧化铝价格屡创新高