Asymchem(002821) 财信证券·2024-11-05 07:11Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price range of 82.08-95.76 CNY per share based on a projected P/E ratio of 24-28 for 2025 [1][8]. Core Insights - The company has shown steady growth in its small molecule CDMO business, while emerging businesses are expected to improve. The Q1-Q3 2024 revenue was 4.14 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 35.14%, but a 4.48% increase when excluding large order impacts. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 710 million CNY, down 67.86% year-on-year [5][6]. - In Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of 1.443 billion CNY, a year-on-year decline of 18.09%, but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.21%. The net profit for the same quarter was 211 million CNY, down 59.68% year-on-year [5][6]. - The small molecule CDMO business generated 3.387 billion CNY in revenue for Q1-Q3 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 7.71% when excluding large orders. The emerging business revenue was 745 million CNY, down 8.37% year-on-year [5][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company's main revenue for 2022 was 10.255 billion CNY, which decreased to 7.825 billion CNY in 2023 and is projected to be 5.899 billion CNY in 2024. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.302 billion CNY in 2022, dropping to 2.269 billion CNY in 2023, with an expected further decline to 966 million CNY in 2024 [4][9]. - The earnings per share (EPS) were 8.98 CNY in 2022, decreasing to 6.17 CNY in 2023, and projected to be 2.63 CNY in 2024 [4][9]. Profitability Metrics - The overall gross margin for Q1-Q3 2024 was 43.60%, a decrease of 1.02 percentage points year-on-year. The small molecule CDMO business had a gross margin of 48.89%, which improved by 1.19 percentage points due to better cost control and an increase in clinical and commercial projects [6][7]. - The emerging business had a gross margin of 19.97%, down 12.99 percentage points, primarily due to a sluggish domestic market and ongoing capacity ramp-up [6][7]. Future Projections - For 2024-2026, the company is expected to achieve net profits of 966 million CNY, 1.259 billion CNY, and 1.595 billion CNY, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.63 CNY, 3.42 CNY, and 4.34 CNY [7][9]. - The projected P/E ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 31.57, 24.22, and 19.11, respectively [7][9].